MLB Prop Bets: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies (October 1, 2026)
The Philadelphia Phillies face the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in the MLB League Wild Card Round on Thursday at 8:00pm (ET). Let's take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Aaron Nola is the probable pitcher for the Phillies, while Ray Kerr is the probable pitcher for the Braves. The total runs line is set at 7.5, with OVER at -102 and UNDER at -118.
- The Phillies (+158) have a 69-95 Run Line record since the beginning of the regular season, while the Braves (-193) hold a record of 88-76.
- The Phillies have a 77-77-10 O/U record since the beginning of the regular season (meaning 77 games have gone over the total runs line, 77 have gone under and 10 have resulted in a push). The Braves have a 74-77-13 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Phillies averaged 4.4 runs per game during the regular season (19th in the league). Comparatively, the Braves averaged 4.6 (9th). During the postseason, the Phillies are averaging 3.5 per game and the Braves are averaging 4.0.
- In the field, the Phillies allowed 4.3 runs per game during the regular season (11th in the league), while the Braves allowed an average of 3.9 runs (5th). More recently, the Phillies are allowing 4.0 per game in these playoffs, while the Braves are allowing an average of 3.5.
Let's take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.
Batting Insights:
Batting Average
- Looking at their batting averages during the regular season, the Phillies were at .240 (ranking 21st in the Major leagues), while the Braves were batting .246 (10th). During the playoffs, the Phillies are at .247 and the Braves are batting .242.
Home Runs
- In terms of total home runs during the regular season, the Braves hit 204 (T7th in the Major Leagues). Meanwhile, the Phillies managed 182 (T16th). The postseason has thus far seen the Phillies hit 3 home runs, while the Braves have hit 1.
Runs Batted In
- Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Phillies recorded 691 RBIs to rank T16th in the MLB during the regular season. Comparatively, the Braves recorded 711 RBIs to rank 8th. The Phillies have recorded 7 RBIs in the playoffs, while the Braves have recorded 8.
Pitching Insights:
Earned Run Average
- The Braves had an earned run average of 3.63 during the regular season (5th in the Majors), while The Phillies had an ERA of 4.04 (11th). In the playoffs, the Phillies have an ERA of 4.00, while the Braves have an ERA of 3.32.
Strikeouts
- Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Phillies recorded 1577 in the regular season season, ranking 1st in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Braves ranked 15th for total strikeouts, recording 1350. The Phillies have recorded 18 strikeouts during the postseason and the Braves have managed 19.
Opponent Batting Average
- Opponents batted an average of .234 against the Braves in the regular season (6th in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Phillies' opponents were at .248 (19th). Throughout these playoffs, the Phillies' opponents are batting an average of .242 and the Braves' opponents are batting an average of .247.
First Innings Moneyline
- Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2026 (including playoffs).
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Neutral | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 45-40-79 | 27-18-36 | 17-22-43 | 37-28-58 | 8-12-21 | 1-0-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Braves | 37-36-91 | 25-13-45 | 12-23-45 | 29-26-60 | 8-10-31 | 0-0-1 | 2-3-5 |
Lead After Three Innings
The Phillies are -140 to lead after three innings, while the Braves are +110.
- Here are their records after the first three innings in 2026 (including playoffs).
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Neutral | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 72-56-36 | 39-27-15 | 32-29-21 | 59-40-24 | 13-16-12 | 1-0-0 | 3-4-3 |
| Braves | 62-62-40 | 40-26-17 | 22-36-22 | 52-36-27 | 10-26-13 | 0-0-1 | 2-3-5 |
NRFI/YRFI
The NRFI market is paying -120 and the YRFI is paying -110.
- The NRFI is 75-89 in Phillies games since the beginning of the regular season. The Braves have an 83-81 NRFI record. Drilling down further, the NRFI is 0-2 in Phillies playoff games this season and 0-2 in Braves playoff games this season.
Last Time They Met
The Phillies recorded a 4-3 extra innings victory over the Braves at Truist Park yesterday. Bryce Harper was unstoppable in that matchup, hitting a home run, a single and recording 2 RBIs. The series is tied at 1-1