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MLB Prop Bets: Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians (October 8, 2026)

The Cleveland Guardians face the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field in Game 4 of the MLB League Division Round on Thursday at 8:00pm (ET). Let's take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Parker Messick is the probable pitcher for the Guardians, while Hagen Smith is the probable pitcher for the White Sox. The Guardians are favored to win at -117, while the White Sox are at -103. The total runs line is set at 7.5, with OVER at +101 and UNDER at -122.

  • The Guardians (+152) have a 78-87 Run Line record since the beginning of the regular season, while the White Sox (-185) hold a record of 94-73.
  • The Guardians have a 79-84-2 O/U record since the beginning of the regular season (meaning 79 games have gone over the total runs line, 84 have gone under and two have resulted in a push). The White Sox have a 96-69-2 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

  • The Guardians averaged 4.2 runs per game during the regular season (24th in the league). Comparatively, the White Sox averaged 4.8 (5th). During the postseason, the Guardians are averaging 4.0 per game and the White Sox are averaging 4.6.
  • In the field, the Guardians allowed 4.1 runs per game during the regular season (8th in the league), while the White Sox allowed an average of 4.4 runs (15th). More recently, the Guardians are allowing 3.3 per game in these playoffs, while the White Sox are allowing an average of 3.6.

Let's take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.

Batting Insights:

Batting Average

  • Looking at their batting averages during the regular season, the Guardians were at .239 (ranking 24th in the Major leagues), while the White Sox were batting .236 (25th). During the playoffs, the Guardians are at .188 and the White Sox are batting .226.

Home Runs

  • In terms of total home runs during the regular season, the White Sox hit 211 (5th in the Major Leagues). Meanwhile, the Guardians managed 162 (27th). The postseason has thus far seen the Guardians hit 0 home runs, while the White Sox have hit 3.

Runs Batted In

  • Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Guardians recorded 650 RBIs to rank 24th in the MLB during the regular season. Comparatively, the White Sox recorded 740 RBIs to rank 5th. The Guardians have recorded 11 RBIs in the playoffs, while the White Sox have recorded 21.

Pitching Insights:

Earned Run Average

  • The White Sox had an earned run average of 4.12 during the regular season (15th in the Majors), while The Guardians had an ERA of 3.77 (8th). In the playoffs, the Guardians have an ERA of 3.33, while the White Sox have an ERA of 3.20.

Strikeouts

  • Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Guardians recorded 1530 in the regular season season, ranking 3rd in the MLB. Meanwhile, the White Sox ranked T16th for total strikeouts, recording 1337. The Guardians have recorded 42 strikeouts during the postseason and the White Sox have managed 49.

Opponent Batting Average

  • Opponents batted an average of .243 against the White Sox in the regular season (17th in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Guardians' opponents were at .238 (11th). Throughout these playoffs, the Guardians' opponents are batting an average of .191 and the White Sox's opponents are batting an average of .180.

First Innings Moneyline

  • Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2026 (including playoffs).
    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Guardians 38-30-97 22-14-47 16-16-50 27-19-58 11-11-39 0-0-0 2-3-5
    White Sox 45-43-79 24-19-39 21-24-40 16-8-30 29-35-49 0-0-0 5-3-2

Lead After Three Innings

The Guardians are -130 to lead after three innings, while the White Sox are +100.

  • Here are their records after the first three innings in 2026 (including playoffs).
    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Guardians 61-52-52 36-25-22 25-27-30 41-33-30 20-19-22 0-0-0 5-0-5
    White Sox 62-58-47 33-25-24 29-33-23 22-11-21 40-47-26 0-0-0 5-3-2

NRFI/YRFI

The NRFI market is paying -155 and the YRFI is paying +120.

  • The NRFI is 91-74 in Guardians games since the beginning of the regular season. The White Sox have a 73-94 NRFI record. Drilling down further, the NRFI is 1-2 in Guardians playoff games this season and 1-4 in White Sox playoff games this season.

Last Time They Met

The Guardians recorded a 9-3 victory over the White Sox at Rate Field yesterday. Jose Ramirez went yard en route to that victory, hitting a home run to go with 2 RBIs.