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MLB Prop Bets: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays (October 17, 2026)

The Tampa Bay Rays face the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Game 4 of the MLB League Championship Round on Saturday at 8:00pm (ET). Let's take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Nick Martinez is the probable pitcher for the Rays, while Shawn Armstrong is the probable pitcher for the Guardians. The Rays are favored to win at -114, while the Guardians are at -105. The total runs line is set at 7.0, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105.

  • The Rays (+170) have a 91-77 Run Line record since the beginning of the regular season, while the Guardians (-208) hold a record of 81-89.
  • The Rays have a 77-86-5 O/U record since the beginning of the regular season (meaning 77 games have gone over the total runs line, 86 have gone under and five have resulted in a push). The Guardians have an 81-87-2 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

  • The Rays averaged 4.5 runs per game during the regular season (12th in the league). Comparatively, the Guardians averaged 4.2 (24th). During the postseason, the Rays are averaging 3.0 per game and the Guardians are averaging 4.3.
  • In the field, the Rays allowed 4.0 runs per game during the regular season (6th in the league), while the Guardians allowed an average of 4.1 runs (8th). More recently, the Rays are allowing 2.7 per game in these playoffs, while the Guardians are allowing an average of 2.9.

Let's take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.

Batting Insights:

Batting Average

  • Looking at their batting averages during the regular season, the Rays were at .258 (ranking 2nd in the Major leagues), while the Guardians were batting .239 (24th). During the playoffs, the Rays are at .197 and the Guardians are batting .230.

Home Runs

  • In terms of total home runs during the regular season, the Guardians hit 162 (27th in the Major Leagues). Meanwhile, the Rays managed 169 (22nd). The postseason has thus far seen the Rays hit 4 home runs, while the Guardians have hit 6.

Runs Batted In

  • Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Rays recorded 700 RBIs to rank 13th in the MLB during the regular season. Comparatively, the Guardians recorded 650 RBIs to rank 24th. The Rays have recorded 16 RBIs in the playoffs, while the Guardians have recorded 33.

Pitching Insights:

Earned Run Average

  • The Guardians had an earned run average of 3.77 during the regular season (8th in the Majors), while The Rays had an ERA of 3.70 (7th). In the playoffs, the Rays have an ERA of 2.72, while the Guardians have an ERA of 2.54.

Strikeouts

  • Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Rays recorded 1322 in the regular season season, ranking 19th in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Guardians ranked 3rd for total strikeouts, recording 1530. The Rays have recorded 58 strikeouts during the postseason and the Guardians have managed 102.

Opponent Batting Average

  • Opponents batted an average of .238 against the Guardians in the regular season (11th in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Rays' opponents were at .229 (4th). Throughout these playoffs, the Rays' opponents are batting an average of .197 and the Guardians' opponents are batting an average of .185.

First Innings Moneyline

  • Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2026 (including playoffs).
    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Rays 41-31-96 22-14-49 19-17-47 29-22-58 12-9-38 0-0-0 4-1-5
    Guardians 38-31-101 22-14-49 16-17-52 27-19-61 11-12-40 0-0-0 1-4-5

Lead After Three Innings

  • Here are their records after the first three innings in 2026 (including playoffs).
    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Rays 71-48-49 35-25-25 36-23-24 50-33-26 21-15-23 0-0-0 6-2-2
    Guardians 62-54-54 37-25-23 25-29-31 42-34-31 20-20-23 0-0-0 4-2-4

NRFI/YRFI

  • The NRFI is 89-79 in Rays games since the beginning of the regular season. The Guardians have a 95-75 NRFI record. Drilling down further, the NRFI is 4-2 in Rays playoff games this season and 5-3 in Guardians playoff games this season.

Last Time They Met

The Guardians recorded a 3-2 victory over the Rays at Progressive Field on Thursday. Petey Halpin went yard en route to that victory, hitting a home run to go with 2 RBIs.