NBA Prop Bets: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks (February 12, 2026)

The Milwaukee Bucks (22-30) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (42-13) at Paycom Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Thursday's matchup. The Thunder opened as 13.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 11.5, leaving the Thunder at -500 and Bucks at +380. The total points line is set at 212.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 112-100 Oklahoma City.

• The Thunder (-112) have a 27-28-0 ATS record this season, while the Bucks (-108) hold a record of 23-29-0.
• The Thunder have a 30-25-0 O/U record this season (meaning 30 games have gone over the total points line and 25 have gone under). The Bucks have a 21-31-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Thunder are averaging 120.2 points per game this season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Bucks are averaging only 111.8 (27th).
• Defensively, the Thunder are giving up only 108.0 points per game this season (1st in the league), while the Bucks are giving up an average of 115.6 points (15th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Thunder currently rank 17th for pace this season, recording 99.4 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Bucks sit 23rd on that scale with 97.8 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 41.7% of the Thunder's field goal attempts come from three point range (16th in the league), leaving 58.3% from two. Meanwhile, the Bucks' opponents are taking 44.3% of their attempts from three (26th) and 55.7% from two.
• Comparatively, Milwaukee takes 43.7% of shots from three (13th), leaving 56.3% from two, while Oklahoma City's opponents are attempting 44.1% from three (25th) and 55.9% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Thunder are shooting 36.2% from deep in 2025/26 (12th in the NBA), compared to the Bucks who are making 39.2% of their attempts (2nd).
• On the opposite end, Oklahoma City is holding opponents to 37.0% of their three-point attempts (26th), while Milwaukee's opponents are hitting 36.9% of their shots (25th).

Ball Protection

• The Thunder are committing just 12.4 turnovers per game this season, ranking 2nd in the league. As such, the Bucks aren't likely to pressurise their opponents in this area given they're forcing only 13.1 turnovers per contest (27th).
• Flipping that script, Oklahoma City is forcing 17.1 turnovers (2nd), while Milwaukee is committing 14.6 (17th).

Crashing the Boards

• Oklahoma City is pulling down 43.6 rebounds per game this season (15th in the league), including 9.2 offensive boards (29th). Conversely, Milwaukee's opponents are averaging 44.5 rebounds (17th), 11.0 of which have come on the offensive end (8th).
• Meanwhile, the Bucks are averaging 41.1 rebounds (27th) and 8.6 offensive rebounds (30th), while the Thunder are allowing 45.4 and 12.1, ranking 24th and 27th.

Back-to-backs

• Notably, the Thunder are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
• Oklahoma City holds a 3-5 W-L record on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, as well as a 1-7-0 ATS record and 4-4-0 O/U record.
• Additionally, Milwaukee has a 3-7 W-L record, 4-6-0 ATS record and 3-7-0 O/U record against teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back this season.
• Notably, the Bucks are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
• Notably, the Thunder and Bucks are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.

First Quarter Winner

Oklahoma City is -238 to win the first quarter, while Milwaukee is +195. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Oklahoma City	34-16-5	17-7-4	17-9-1	34-15-5	0-1-0	6-3-1
Milwaukee	21-28-3	9-14-1	12-14-2	9-11-1	12-17-2	1-7-2

First Half Winner

Oklahoma City is -360 to win the first half and Milwaukee is +285. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Oklahoma City	40-15-0	20-8-0	20-7-0	40-14-0	0-1-0	6-4-0
Milwaukee	20-32-0	9-15-0	11-17-0	8-13-0	12-19-0	4-6-0

HT/FT

Oklahoma City is -340 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Milwaukee is +600.

• The Thunder have completed the HT/FT double in 60.0% of games this season, while the Bucks have completed the HT/FT double in 25.0% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Thursday's matchup is +1800 to go to overtime.

• The Thunder have played in three games that went to overtime this season, while the Bucks have also appeared in three.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 18 of Oklahoma City's 55 games this season. Meanwhile, 23 of Milwaukee's 52 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Oklahoma City recorded a 122-102 blowout victory against Milwaukee at Fiserv Forum when these teams last met on January 21. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander facilitated the offense on that day, finishing with 40 points and 11 assists. The Thunder have now won three straight against the Bucks.