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NBA Prop Bets: Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings (February 26, 2026)

The Sacramento Kings (13-47) face the Dallas Mavericks (21-36) at American Airlines Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Thursday's matchup. The Mavericks opened as 6.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 7.5, leaving the Mavericks at -310 and Kings at +250. The total points line is set at 236.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 122-114 Dallas.

  • The Mavericks (-115) have a 26-30-1 ATS record this season, while the Kings (-105) hold a record of 23-36-1.
  • The Mavericks have a 26-31-0 O/U record this season (meaning 26 games have gone over the total points line and 31 have gone under). The Kings have a 30-30-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

  • The Mavericks are averaging 114.4 points per game this season (22nd in the league). Comparatively, the Kings are averaging 110.1 (29th).
  • Defensively, the Mavericks are giving up 117.6 points per game this season (22nd in the league), while the Kings are giving up an average of 121.1 points (28th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

  • The Mavericks currently rank 4th for pace this season, recording 101.8 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Kings sit 16th on that scale with 99.4 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

  • Looking at field goal splits, just 35.1% of the Mavericks' field goal attempts come from three point range (28th in the league), leaving 64.9% from two. Meanwhile, the Kings' opponents are taking only 40.3% of their attempts from three (9th) and 59.7% from two.
  • Comparatively, Sacramento takes only 34.1% of shots from three (30th), leaving 65.9% from two, while Dallas' opponents are attempting a similarly low 38.4% from three (10th) and 61.6% from two.

Beyond the Arc

  • In terms of made three-pointers, the Mavericks are shooting 34.2% from deep in 2025/26 (27th in the NBA), compared to the Kings who are making 33.8% of their attempts (30th).
  • On the opposite end, Dallas is holding opponents to 34.3% of their three-point attempts (2nd), while Sacramento's opponents are hitting 36.5% of their shots (22nd).

Ball Protection

  • The Mavericks are committing 14.6 turnovers per game this season, ranking 16th in the league, while the Kings are forcing 14.2 turnovers (17th).
  • Flipping that script, Dallas is forcing 13.6 turnovers (23rd), while Sacramento is committing 14.5 (14th).

Crashing the Boards

  • Dallas is pulling down 44.7 rebounds per game this season (10th in the league), including 10.1 offensive boards (25th). Conversely, Sacramento's opponents are averaging 44.7 rebounds (18th), 11.4 of which have come on the offensive end (13th).
  • Meanwhile, the Kings are averaging 41.4 rebounds (26th) and 11.1 offensive rebounds (19th), while the Mavericks are allowing 46.7 and 12.3, ranking 27th and 28th.

Back-to-backs

  • Notably, the Mavericks are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
  • Dallas holds a 5-4 W-L record on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, as well as a 7-2-0 ATS record and 4-5-0 O/U record.
  • Additionally, Sacramento has a 4-5 W-L record, 6-3-0 ATS record and 6-3-0 O/U record against teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back this season.

First Quarter Winner

Dallas is -175 to win the first quarter, while Sacramento is +145. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog
    Dallas 19-36-2 12-17-1 7-19-1 10-9-0 9-27-2 2-8-0
    Sacramento 21-36-3 15-13-1 6-23-2 3-3-0 18-33-3 5-5-0

First Half Winner

Dallas is -230 to win the first half and Sacramento is +190. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog
    Dallas 20-36-1 11-18-1 9-18-0 10-9-0 10-27-1 2-8-0
    Sacramento 17-41-2 9-19-1 8-22-1 2-3-1 15-38-1 2-8-0

HT/FT

Dallas is -180 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Sacramento is +330.

  • The Mavericks have completed the HT/FT double in 24.6% of games this season, while the Kings have completed the HT/FT double in 13.3% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Thursday's matchup is +1500 to go to overtime.

  • The Mavericks have played in four games that went to overtime this season, while the Kings have appeared in three.

Both Teams 110+

  • Both teams have scored 110+ points in 32 of Dallas' 57 games this season. Meanwhile, 29 of Sacramento's 60 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Dallas recorded a 100-98 victory over Sacramento at Golden 1 Center when these teams last met on January 6. Anthony Davis was prominent on that day, recording 19 points, 16 rebounds and two blocks.