NBA Prop Bets: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors (March 7, 2026)

The Golden State Warriors (32-30) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (49-15) at Paycom Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Saturday's matchup. The Thunder are favored to win at -800, currently marked as 14.5-point favorites, while the Warriors are at +550. The total points line is set at 219.5, with OVER at -112 and UNDER at -108, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 117-102 Oklahoma City.

• The Thunder (-112) have a 31-33-0 ATS record this season, while the Warriors (-108) hold a record of 28-34-0.
• The Thunder have a 34-30-0 O/U record this season (meaning 34 games have gone over the total points line and 30 have gone under). The Warriors have a 36-25-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Thunder are averaging 118.9 points per game this season (5th in the league). Comparatively, the Warriors are averaging only 115.3 (16th).
• Defensively, the Thunder are giving up only 107.8 points per game this season (2nd in the league), while the Warriors are giving up an average of 114.1 points (11th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Thunder currently rank 17th for pace this season, recording 99.5 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Warriors sit 16th on that scale with 99.5 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 42.3% of the Thunder's field goal attempts come from three point range (13th in the league), leaving 57.7% from two. Meanwhile, the Warriors' opponents are taking 40.3% of their attempts from three (8th) and 59.7% from two.
• Comparatively, Golden State takes 50.7% of shots from three (1st), leaving 49.3% from two, while Oklahoma City's opponents are attempting a similarly high 44.0% from three (25th) and 56.0% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Thunder are shooting 36.1% from deep in 2025/26 (12th in the NBA), compared to the Warriors who are making 36.0% of their attempts (13th).
• On the opposite end, Oklahoma City is holding opponents to 36.6% of their three-point attempts (22nd), while Golden State's opponents are hitting 35.4% of their shots (11th).

Ball Protection

• The Thunder are committing 12.7 turnovers per game this season, ranking 2nd in the league, while the Warriors are forcing 15.9 turnovers (T4th).
• Flipping that script, Oklahoma City is forcing 17.0 turnovers (2nd), while Golden State is committing a potentially problematic 15.5 per contest (25th).

Crashing the Boards

• Oklahoma City is pulling down 44.0 rebounds per game this season (14th in the league), including 9.4 offensive boards (29th). Conversely, Golden State's opponents are averaging 45.0 rebounds (20th), 11.9 of which have come on the offensive end (21st).
• Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging 42.9 rebounds (23rd) and 11.2 offensive rebounds (16th), while the Thunder are allowing 45.6 and 12.0, ranking 24th and 24th.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Oklahoma City	39-20-5	18-10-4	21-10-1	37-18-5	2-2-0	6-4-0
Golden State	26-32-4	14-16-2	12-16-2	18-19-4	8-13-0	6-3-1

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Oklahoma City	46-18-0	22-10-0	24-8-0	44-16-0	2-2-0	7-3-0
Golden State	36-26-0	19-13-0	17-13-0	26-15-0	10-11-0	6-4-0

HT/FT

• The Thunder have completed the HT/FT double in 60.9% of games this season, while the Warriors have completed the HT/FT double in 41.9% of games.

To Go To Overtime

• The Thunder have played in four games that went to overtime this season, while the Warriors have appeared in three.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 21 of Oklahoma City's 64 games this season. Meanwhile, 32 of Golden State's 62 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Oklahoma City recorded a 131-94 blowout victory against Golden State at Chase Center when these teams last met on January 2. Chet Holmgren cleaned the glass on that day, finishing with 15 rebounds, as well as 15 points and four blocks. The Thunder have now won three straight against the Warriors.