NBA Prop Bets: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets (April 30, 2026)

The Denver Nuggets (56-31) face the Minnesota Timberwolves (52-35) at Target Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Thursday's matchup. The Nuggets opened as 6.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 5.5, leaving the Nuggets at -225 and Timberwolves at +185. The total points line is set at 224.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 115-110 Denver.

• The Timberwolves (-105) have a 40-46-1 ATS record this season including playoffs, while the Nuggets (-115) hold a record of 46-41-0.
• The Timberwolves have a 40-47-0 O/U record this season including playoffs (meaning 40 games have gone over the total points line and 47 have gone under). The Nuggets have a 53-33-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Timberwolves are averaging 118.0 points per game this season (7th in the league). Comparatively, the Nuggets are averaging 122.1 (1st).
• Defensively, the Timberwolves are giving up 114.6 points per game this season (12th in the league), while the Nuggets are giving up an average of 116.9 points (21st).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Timberwolves currently rank 9th for pace this season, recording 100.5 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Nuggets sit 21st on that scale with 98.4 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 42.0% of the Timberwolves' field goal attempts come from three point range (17th in the league), leaving 58.0% from two. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' opponents are taking 42.9% of their attempts from three (T26th) and 57.1% from two.
• Comparatively, Denver takes 40.8% of shots from three (20th), leaving 59.2% from two, while Minnesota's opponents are attempting 37.9% from three (2nd) and 62.1% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Timberwolves are shooting 37.0% from deep in 2025/26 (6th in the NBA), compared to the Nuggets who are making 39.6% of their attempts (1st).
• On the opposite end, Minnesota is holding opponents to 35.5% of their three-point attempts (13th), while Denver's opponents are hitting 34.9% of their shots (3rd).

Ball Protection

• The Timberwolves are committing 14.8 turnovers per game this season, ranking 19th in the league, while the Nuggets are forcing 11.8 turnovers (30th).
• Flipping that script, Minnesota is forcing 15.0 turnovers (12th), while Denver is committing 12.9 (3rd).

Crashing the Boards

• Minnesota is pulling down 44.1 rebounds per game this season (13th in the league), including 11.1 offensive boards (17th). Conversely, Denver's opponents are averaging 42.8 rebounds (9th), 11.2 of which have come on the offensive end (13th).
• Meanwhile, the Nuggets are averaging 44.0 rebounds (14th) and 9.8 offensive rebounds (26th), while the Timberwolves are allowing 43.7 and 11.8, ranking 16th and 21st.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Minnesota	44-41-2	20-22-1	24-19-1	33-24-2	11-17-0	5-5-0
Denver	53-32-2	30-14-0	23-18-2	40-21-1	13-11-1	6-4-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Minnesota	44-37-6	23-19-1	21-18-5	31-25-3	13-12-3	4-4-2
Denver	47-33-7	27-14-3	20-19-4	37-20-5	10-13-2	4-4-2

HT/FT

Minnesota is +265 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Denver is -150.

• The Timberwolves have completed the HT/FT double in 35.6% of games this season, while the Nuggets have completed the HT/FT double in 41.4% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Thursday's matchup is +1700 to go to overtime.

• The Timberwolves have played in four games that went to overtime this season, while the Nuggets have appeared in nine.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 41 of Minnesota's 82 games this season. Meanwhile, 53 of Denver's 82 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

The Nuggets recorded a 125-113 victory over the Timberwolves at Ball Arena on Monday. Despite that result, the Timberwolves still lead the series 3-2. Nikola Jokic was everywhere on that day, finishing with a 27-point, 12-rebound, 16-assist triple-double.