NBA Prop Bets: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets (October 22, 2026)

The Denver Nuggets (0-0) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) at Paycom Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Thursday's matchup. The Thunder are favored to win at -310, currently marked as 7.5-point favorites, while the Nuggets are at +250. The total points line is set at 235.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 122-114 Oklahoma City.

• The Thunder (-115) have a 48-49-1 ATS record since the beginning of last season, while the Nuggets (-105) hold a record of 46-42-0 across the same span.
• The Thunder have a 55-43-0 O/U record since the beginning of last season (meaning 55 games have gone over the total points line and 43 have gone under). The Nuggets have a 53-34-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Thunder have scored 119.0 points per game since the beginning of last season (5th in the league). Comparatively, the Nuggets have averaged 122.1 over the same span (1st).
• Defensively, the Thunder have allowed just 107.8 points per game since the beginning of last season (2nd in the league), while the Nuggets have given up an average of 116.9 points over that span (20th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams have played since the beginning of last season?

Pace

• The Thunder rank 16th for pace since the beginning of last season, recording 99.3 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Nuggets sit 21st on that scale with 98.4 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 42.4% of the Thunder's field goal attempts have come from three point range since the beginning of last season (15th in the league), leaving 57.6% from two. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' opponents are taking 42.9% of their attempts from three (26th) and 57.1% from two.
• Comparatively, Denver has taken 40.8% of shots from three (20th), leaving 59.2% from two, while Oklahoma City's opponents have attempted 44.0% from three (24th) and 56.0% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Thunder have shot 36.6% from deep since the beginning of last season (9th in the NBA), compared to the Nuggets who are making 39.6% of their attempts (1st).
• On the opposite end, Oklahoma City has held opponents to 36.8% of their three-point attempts (24th), while Denver's opponents have been doing it tougher, hitting 34.9% of their shots (4th).

Ball Protection

• The Thunder are committing just 12.6 turnovers per game since the beginning of last season, ranking 2nd in the league. As such, the Nuggets aren't likely to pressurise their opponents in this area given they've forced only 11.8 turnovers per contest (30th) across the same period.
• Flipping that script, Oklahoma City has forced 16.7 turnovers (2nd), while Denver has committed 12.9 (3rd).

Crashing the Boards

• Oklahoma City is pulling down 44.2 rebounds per game since the beginning of last season (12th in the league), including 9.6 offensive boards (27th). Conversely, Denver's opponents are averaging 42.8 rebounds (9th), 11.2 of which have come on the offensive end (12th).
• Meanwhile, the Nuggets have averaged 44.0 rebounds (14th) and 9.8 offensive rebounds (26th), while the Thunder are allowing 45.2 and 11.8, ranking 21st and 23rd.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Oklahoma City	60-30-8	29-15-6	31-15-2	58-24-8	2-6-0
Denver	54-32-2	30-14-0	24-18-2	41-21-1	13-11-1

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Oklahoma City	69-29-0	33-17-0	36-12-0	66-24-0	3-5-0
Denver	47-34-7	27-14-3	20-20-4	37-21-5	10-13-2

HT/FT

Oklahoma City is -160 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Denver is +295.

• The Thunder have completed the HT/FT double in 62.2% of games since the beginning of last season, while the Nuggets have completed the HT/FT double in 40.9% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Thursday's matchup is +1800 to go to overtime.

• The Thunder have played in six games that went to overtime since the beginning of last season, while the Nuggets have appeared in nine.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 32 of Oklahoma City's 98 games since the beginning of last season. Meanwhile, 55 of Denver's 88 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Denver recorded a 127-107 blowout victory against Oklahoma City at Ball Arena when these teams last met on April 10, 2026. Jonas Valanciunas was prominent on that day, recording 23 points, 17 rebounds, four assists and two blocks. That result snapped the Thunder's four-game winning streak against the Nuggets.