NBA Prop Bets: Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat (November 5, 2026)

The Miami Heat (3-5) face the Golden State Warriors (5-3) at Chase Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Thursday's matchup. The Warriors opened as 4.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 7.5, leaving the Warriors at -281 and Heat at +230. The total points line is set at 235.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 122-114 Golden State.

• The Warriors (-106) have a 6-2-0 ATS record this season, while the Heat (-114) hold a record of 2-6-0.
• The Warriors have a 5-3-0 O/U record this season (meaning five games have gone over the total points line and three have gone under). The Heat have a 4-4-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Warriors are averaging 117.5 points per game this season (10th in the league). Comparatively, the Heat are averaging 118.0 (7th).
• Defensively, the Warriors are giving up 114.6 points per game this season (19th in the league), while the Heat are giving up an average of 122.9 points (27th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Warriors currently rank 20th for pace this season, recording 98.6 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Heat sit 2nd on that scale with 102.9 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 47.5% of the Warriors' field goal attempts come from three point range (7th in the league), leaving 52.5% from two. Meanwhile, the Heat's opponents are taking 46.0% of their attempts from three (27th) and 54.0% from two.
• Comparatively, Miami takes 42.8% of shots from three (13th), leaving 57.2% from two, while Golden State's opponents are attempting 41.8% from three (9th) and 58.2% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Warriors are shooting 38.9% from deep in 2026/27 (2nd in the NBA), compared to the Heat who are making 33.5% of their attempts (20th).
• On the opposite end, Golden State is holding opponents to 35.3% of their three-point attempts (16th), while Miami's opponents are hitting 40.5% of their shots (30th).

Ball Protection

• The Warriors are committing 16.5 turnovers per game this season, ranking T19th in the league, while the Heat are forcing 16.9 turnovers (9th).
• Flipping that script, Golden State is forcing 17.5 turnovers (6th), while Miami is committing 15.1 (T10th).

Crashing the Boards

• Golden State is pulling down 43.9 rebounds per game this season (T14th in the league), including 14.5 offensive boards (T3rd). Conversely, Miami's opponents are averaging 45.9 rebounds (23rd), 11.4 of which have come on the offensive end (10th).
• Meanwhile, the Heat are averaging 43.3 rebounds (19th) and 10.8 offensive rebounds (22nd), while the Warriors are allowing 41.3 and 11.6, ranking 5th and 11th.

Back-to-backs

• Notably, the Warriors are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
• Golden State holds an 8-1 W-L record on the second leg of a back-to-back since the beginning of last season, as well as a 9-9-0 ATS record and 11-6-1 O/U record.
• Additionally, Miami has a 10-5 W-L record, 11-4-0 ATS record and 7-7-1 O/U record against teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back since the beginning of last season.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2026/27.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Golden State	3-5-0	1-3-0	2-2-0	1-2-0	2-3-0	3-7-0
Miami	3-4-1	1-3-0	2-1-1	2-2-1	1-2-0	4-5-1

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2026/27.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Golden State	3-4-1	1-2-1	2-2-0	1-2-0	2-2-1	3-6-1
Miami	2-6-0	1-3-0	1-3-0	1-4-0	1-2-0	4-6-0

HT/FT

Golden State is -160 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Miami is +285.

• The Warriors have completed the HT/FT double in 37.5% of games this season, while the Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 25.0% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Thursday's matchup is +1800 to go to overtime.

• The Warriors have played in five games that went to overtime since the beginning of last season, while the Heat have appeared in three.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in five of Golden State's eight games this season. Meanwhile, six of Miami's eight games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Golden State recorded a 135-112 blowout victory against Miami at Chase Center when these teams last met on January 19, 2026. Stephen Curry was influential on that day, recording 19 points and 11 assists. That result snapped the Heat's three-game winning streak against the Warriors.