NFL Prop Bets: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills - Week 15

The Buffalo Bills (9-4) face the New England Patriots (11-2) at Gillette Stadium for Week 15. Let's take a look at the NFL Prop Bets for Sunday's matchup. The Patriots started the week as 1.5-point favorites, but the Bills have moved into favoritism at -121, with the spread currently set at 1.5. The Patriots are +100.

The total points line is set at 49.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 26-24 Buffalo.

The Bills (-108) have a 6-7-0 ATS record this season, while the Patriots (-113) hold a record of 9-4-0.
The Bills have a 6-7-0 O/U record this season (meaning six games have gone over the total points line and seven have gone under). The Patriots have a 7-6-0 O/U record.

Points on the board

The Bills are averaging 28.9 points per game this season (T5th in the league). Comparatively, the Patriots are averaging 27.0 (7th).
Defensively, the Bills are giving up 22.5 points per game this season (14th in the league), while the Patriots are giving up an average of 18.5 points (5th).

Moving the chains

With an average of 383.7, the Bills rank 2nd in the league for total yards per game. Comparatively, the Patriots rank 8th with 362.6 yards per game.
In terms of yards allowed, the Bills are giving up 307.1 per game this season (10th in the league), while the Patriots are giving up an average of 296.4 (7th).

Ascendency in the air

The Bills have recorded 225.9 passing yards per game this season (11th in the league). Comparatively, the Patriots' defense has given up 206.9 passing yards per game (14th).
Meanwhile, the Patriots have recorded 249.7 passing yards per game this season (2nd in the league), while the Bills' defense has been effective, conceding just 171.8 passing yards per game (2nd).

Advantage on the ground

Looking at the ground game, the Bills have recorded 157.8 rushing yards per game this season (1st in the league). Conversely, the Patriots are giving up 89.5 rushing yards per game (3rd).
On the other hand, the Patriots have recorded 112.9 rushing yards per game this season (21st in the league), while the Bills are giving up 135.2 rushing yards per game (28th).

Protecting the ball

Looking at their ability to force turnovers, the Bills have recorded 17 total takeaways this season (T10th in the league), while the Patriots have failed to perform at the same level, recording 14 (T20th).
On offense, the Bills have recorded 18 total giveaways this season (T23rd in the league), while the Patriots have taken better care of the ball, recording 13 (T8th).

First to Score

The Bills are -110 to score first, while the Patriots are -121.

The Bills have scored first in six of their 13 games this season.
The Patriots have scored first in five of their 13 games this season.

Which team will score the first touchdown?

The Bills are -115 to record the first touchdown, while the Patriots are -110.

The Bills have recorded the first touchdown in eight of their 13 games this season.
The Patriots have recorded the first touchdown in four of their 13 games this season.

First Scoring Play

Play	Frequency	Odds
Buffalo Touchdown	5 / 13	+205
Buffalo Field Goal	1 / 13	+384
Buffalo Safety	0 / 13	+7900
New England Touchdown	2 / 13	+198
New England Field Goal	3 / 13	+367
New England Safety	0 / 13	+8200

Which team will get a quick start?

The Bills are -113 to be the first team to reach 10 points, while the Patriots are -114.

The Bills have been the first to score 10 points in six of their 13 games this season.
The Patriots have been the first to score 10 points in eight of their 13 games this season.

First Quarter Moneyline

The Patriots are favored in the 1st Quarter Moneyline market, currently at -115, while the Bills are -106.

The Bills have a 7-4-2 first quarter W/L/T record this season, while the Patriots hold a record of 5-5-3.

Last Time They Met

The Patriots recorded an upset 23-20 victory over the Bills at Highmark Stadium when these teams last met in Week 5, 2025. That result snapped the Bills' four-game winning streak against the Patriots at Highmark Stadium.