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NFL Prop Bets: New England Patriots vs Houston Texans - Divisional Round

The Houston Texans (12-5) face the New England Patriots (14-3) at Gillette Stadium for the Divisional Round. Let's take a look at the NFL Prop Bets for Sunday's matchup. The Patriots are favored to win at -177, currently marked as 3.0-point favorites, while the Texans are at +145.

The total points line is set at 40.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -106, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 22-19 New England.

  • The Texans (+100) have a 10-8-0 ATS record this season, while the Patriots (-121) hold a record of 13-5-0.
  • The Texans have a 6-11-1 O/U record this season (meaning six games have gone over the total points line, 11 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Patriots have an 11-7-0 O/U record.

Points on the board

  • The Texans averaged 23.8 points per game during the regular season (13th in the league). Comparatively, the Patriots performed better, averaging 28.8 (2nd).
  • Defensively, the Texans gave up 17.4 points per game during the regular season (2nd in the league), while the Patriots gave up an average of 18.8 points (4th).

Moving the chains

  • With an average of just 327.0, the Texans ranked 18th in the league for total yards per game during the regular season. Comparatively, the Patriots ranked 3rd with 379.4 yards per game.
  • In terms of yards allowed, the Texans gave up 277.2 per game during the regular season (1st in the league), while the Patriots gave up an average of 295.2 (8th).

Ascendency in the air

  • The Texans recorded 218.1 passing yards per game during the regular season (14th in the league). Comparatively, the Patriots' defense gave up 193.5 passing yards per game (9th).
  • Meanwhile, the Patriots recorded 250.5 passing yards per game during the regular season (4th in the league), although they should still be challenged by the Texans' defense, which conceded just 183.5 passing yards per game (6th).

Advantage on the ground

  • Looking at the ground game, the Texans recorded 108.9 rushing yards per game during the regular season (22nd in the league). Conversely, the Patriots gave up 101.7 rushing yards per game (6th).
  • On the other hand, the Patriots recorded 128.9 rushing yards per game during the regular season (6th in the league), while the Texans are giving up 93.7 rushing yards per game (4th).

Protecting the ball

  • Looking at their ability to force turnovers, the Texans recorded 29 total takeaways during the regular season (3rd in the league), while the Patriots failed to perform at the same level, recording 19 (T19th).
  • On offense, the Texans recorded 12 total giveaways during the regular season (2nd in the league), while the Patriots recorded 16 (T9th).

First to Score

The Texans are +105 to score first, while the Patriots are -136.

  • The Texans have scored first in 12 of their 18 games this season (including playoffs).
  • The Patriots have scored first in nine of their 18 games this season (including playoffs).

Which team will score the first touchdown?

The Texans are +140 to record the first touchdown, while the Patriots are -165.

  • The Texans have recorded the first touchdown in 10 of their 18 games this season (including playoffs).
  • The Patriots have recorded the first touchdown in eight of their 18 games this season (including playoffs).

First Scoring Play

    Play Frequency Odds
    Houston Touchdown5 / 18+363
    Houston Field Goal7 / 18+251
    Houston Safety0 / 18+6600
    New England Touchdown5 / 18+199
    New England Field Goal4 / 18+304
    New England Safety0 / 18+7000

Which team will get a quick start?

The Texans are +134 to be the first team to reach 10 points, while the Patriots are -162.

  • The Texans have been the first to score 10 points in 13 of their 18 games this season (including playoffs).
  • The Patriots have also been the first to score 10 points in 13 of their 18 games (including playoffs).

First Quarter Moneyline

The Patriots are favored in the 1st Quarter Moneyline market, currently at -148, while the Texans are +124.

  • The Texans have an 11-7-0 first quarter W/L/T record this season, while the Patriots hold a record of 8-6-4 (including playoffs).

Last Time They Met

The Texans recorded a 41-21 victory over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium when these teams last met in Week 6, 2024. That result snapped the Patriots' seven-game winning streak against the Texans at Gillette Stadium.