NHL Prop Bets: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs (February 25, 2026)
The Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9) face the Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4) at Benchmark International Arena. Let's take a look at the NHL Prop Bets for Wednesday's matchup.
- The Maple Leafs have a 25-32 Puck Line record this season, while the Lightning hold a record of 27-28.
The total goals line is set at 6.5, with OVER at +105 and UNDER at -125.
- The Maple Leafs have a 32-21-4 O/U record this season (meaning 32 games have gone over the total points line, 21 have gone under and four have resulted in a push). The Lightning have a 26-27-2 O/U record.
Goals For Insights
- The Maple Leafs are averaging 3.28 goals per game this season (13th in the league). Comparatively, the Lightning are averaging +0.3 more at 3.55 goals (2nd).
- Defensively, the Maple Leafs are giving up a whopping 3.39 goals per game this season (27th in the league), while the Lightning are giving up an average of 2.51 goals (2nd).
Shots
- Looking at creating chances to score, Toronto is averaging just 27.3 shots per game this season (21st in the NHL). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is at the opposite end of the spectrum while defending, allowing its opposition only 26.4 shots per game (7th).
- Flipping that script, the Maple Leafs are allowing 31.6 shots per game (32nd in the NHL), while the Lightning are averaging 28.1 shots (16th).
Power Play
- Toronto holds a power play percentage of 18.8%, ranking 22nd in the league this season, while Tampa Bay sits 12th with 22.4% of its power play opportunities converted.
Penalty Kill %
- On the opposite end, the Maple Leafs have a penalty kill rate of 83.7% (ranked 5th), compared to the Lightning at 83.9% (4th).
P1 Result
Toronto is +270 to win the first period, while Tampa Bay is +120.
- Here are their first period records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | 20-17-20 | 12-10-9 | 8-7-11 | 1-4-5 |
| Tampa Bay | 26-16-13 | 12-8-7 | 14-8-6 | 2-4-4 |
To Go To Overtime
Wednesday's matchup is +310 to go to overtime.
- The Maple Leafs have played in 17 games that have gone to overtime this season, while the Lightning have appeared in 13.
To Go To a Shootout
- The Maple Leafs have played in 2 games that have gone to a shootout this season, while the Lightning have appeared in 6.
Last Time They Met
Toronto recorded a 2-0 victory over Tampa Bay at Scotiabank Arena when these teams last met on December 8. Auston Matthews led the way to that result, scoring 1 goal. The Maple Leafs have now won five straight against the Lightning.
