NHL Prop Bets: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning (March 7, 2026)
The Tampa Bay Lightning (38-18-4) face the Toronto Maple Leafs (27-25-11) at Scotiabank Arena. Let's take a look at the NHL Prop Bets for Saturday's matchup. The Lightning are favored to win at -170. They're currently +150 to cover the -1.5 puck line while the Maple Leafs are -180 to cover the +1.5 puck line.
- The Lightning have a 29-31 Puck Line record this season, while the Maple Leafs hold a record of 26-37.
The total goals line is set at 6.5, with OVER at +100 and UNDER at -120.
- The Lightning have a 28-28-4 O/U record this season (meaning 28 games have gone over the total points line, 28 have gone under and four have resulted in a push). The Maple Leafs have a 35-23-5 O/U record.
Goals For Insights
- The Lightning are averaging 3.45 goals per game this season (4th in the league). Comparatively, the Maple Leafs are averaging only 3.16 (15th).
- Defensively, the Lightning are giving up only 2.67 goals per game this season (3rd in the league), while the Maple Leafs are giving up an average of 3.46 goals (29th).
Shots
- Looking at creating chances to score, Tampa Bay is averaging 28.4 shots per game this season (15th in the NHL). Meanwhile, Toronto is allowing its opposition 31.9 shots per game (32nd).
- Flipping that script, the Lightning are allowing 26.7 shots per game (9th in the NHL), while the Maple Leafs are averaging 27.5 shots (21st).
Power Play
- Tampa Bay holds a power play percentage of 21.8%, ranking 13th in the league this season, while Toronto sits 18th with 19.7% of its power play opportunities converted.
Penalty Kill %
- On the opposite end, the Lightning have a penalty kill rate of 83.2% (ranked 5th), compared to the Maple Leafs at 83.0% (6th).
P1 Result
Tampa Bay is +145 to win the first period, while Toronto is +215.
- Here are their first period records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 26-19-15 | 12-9-8 | 14-10-7 | 2-4-4 |
| Toronto | 20-18-25 | 12-10-11 | 8-8-14 | 1-1-8 |
To Go To Overtime
Saturday's matchup is +285 to go to overtime.
- The Lightning have played in 13 games that have gone to overtime this season, while the Maple Leafs have appeared in 19.
To Go To a Shootout
- The Lightning have played in 6 games that have gone to a shootout this season, while the Maple Leafs have appeared in 4.
Last Time They Met
Tampa Bay recorded a 4-2 victory over Toronto at Benchmark International Arena when these teams last met on February 25. Brayden Point led the way to that result, recording 2 goals and 1 assist. That result snapped the Maple Leafs' five-game winning streak against the Lightning.
