The Geelong Cats (15-8) face the Carlton Blues (12-10-1) at the MCG. Let's take a look at the betting lines for Friday's AFL Elimination Final. The Cats started the week as 7.5-point favorites but the line has since moved to 11.5, leaving the Cats at -190 and Blues at +150. The total points line is set at 165.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 88-77 Geelong.
- The Cats (-115) have a 12-11 Line record this season, while the Blues (-115) hold a record of 14-10.
- The Cats have a 13-10 O/U record this season (meaning 13 games have gone over the total points line and 10 have gone under). The Blues have a 10-14 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Cats are averaging 102.4 points per game this season (3rd in the league). Comparatively, the Blues are averaging only 87.3 (12th).
- Defensively, the Cats are giving up 83.7 points per game this season (5th in the league), while the Blues are giving up an average of 86.0 points (8th).
First Quarter Winner
- Here are their first quarter records in 2026.
| | Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | At the MCG | Last 5 |
|---|
| Geelong | 14-9-0 | 9-3-0 | 5-6-0 | 12-7-0 | 2-2-0 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 |
| Carlton | 11-13-0 | 5-6-0 | 6-7-0 | 6-3-0 | 5-10-0 | 2-7-0 | 3-2-0 |
First Half Winner
- Here are their first half records in 2026.
| | Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | At the MCG | Last 5 |
|---|
| Geelong | 18-5-0 | 10-2-0 | 8-3-0 | 15-4-0 | 3-1-0 | 5-0-0 | 5-0-0 |
| Carlton | 14-10-0 | 8-3-0 | 6-7-0 | 6-3-0 | 8-7-0 | 4-5-0 | 3-2-0 |
HT/FT
- The Cats have completed the HT/FT double in 60.9% of games this season, while the Blues have completed the HT/FT double in 37.5% of games.
Margin Betting
- Here are the Cats' Margin Betting records in 2026.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|
| W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ |
| 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
- These are the Blues' Margin Betting records in 2026.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|
| W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | Draw | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | Draw | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | Draw | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | Draw | W1-39 | W40+ | L1-39 | L40+ | Draw |
| 10 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | |
Tribet
- Here is the Cats' Tribet record in 2026.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|
| Cats -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Cats -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Cats -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Cats -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Cats -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 |
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
- These are the Blues' Tribet records in 2026.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|
| Blues -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Blues -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Blues -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Blues -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 | Blues -15.5 | 15 or less | Opponent -15.5 |
| 7 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
Disposals
- Looking at their disposal averages in 2026, Geelong has accumulated 376.0 per game, while Carlton has conceded 355.6.
- Conversely, Carlton has averaged 390.0 per contest, while Geelong has conceded 369.9.
