NBA Prop Bets: Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies (February 21, 2026)

The Memphis Grizzlies (21-33) face the Miami Heat (30-27) at Kaseya Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Saturday's matchup. The Heat opened as 9.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 12.5, leaving the Heat at -600 and Grizzlies at +440. The total points line is set at 236.5, with OVER at -112 and UNDER at -108, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 124-112 Miami.

• The Heat (-102) have a 32-24-1 ATS record this season, while the Grizzlies (-118) hold a record of 25-28-1.
• The Heat have a 28-28-1 O/U record this season (meaning 28 games have gone over the total points line, 28 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Grizzlies have a 25-28-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Heat are averaging 119.7 points per game this season (3rd in the league). Comparatively, the Grizzlies are averaging only 115.4 (16th).
• Defensively, the Heat are giving up 116.8 points per game this season (20th in the league), while the Grizzlies are giving up an average of 117.4 points (21st).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Heat currently rank 1st for pace this season, recording 104.0 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Grizzlies sit 6th on that scale with 101.3 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 39.6% of the Heat's field goal attempts come from three point range (15th in the league), leaving 60.4% from two. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies' opponents are taking 43.4% of their attempts from three (27th) and 56.6% from two.
• Comparatively, Memphis takes 42.1% of shots from three (11th), leaving 57.9% from two, while Miami's opponents are attempting 42.4% from three (28th) and 57.6% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Heat are shooting 36.1% from deep in 2025/26 (14th in the NBA), compared to the Grizzlies who are making 35.1% of their attempts (20th).
• On the opposite end, Miami is holding opponents to 34.8% of their three-point attempts (6th), while Memphis' opponents are hitting 36.2% of their shots (18th).

Ball Protection

• The Heat are committing 14.1 turnovers per game this season, ranking 9th in the league, while the Grizzlies are forcing 15.1 turnovers (13th).
• Flipping that script, Miami is forcing 15.7 turnovers (8th), while Memphis is committing 15.2 (22nd).

Crashing the Boards

• Miami is pulling down 47.1 rebounds per game this season (2nd in the league), including 12.0 offensive boards (11th). Conversely, Memphis' opponents are averaging 45.1 rebounds (23rd), 11.8 of which have come on the offensive end (21st).
• Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are averaging an impressive 45.0 rebounds (9th) and 11.7 offensive rebounds (14th), while the Heat are allowing 47.4 and 11.9, ranking 29th and 23rd.

Back-to-backs

• Notably, the Heat are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
• Miami holds a 9-4 W-L record on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, as well as a 9-4-0 ATS record and 6-7-0 O/U record.
• Additionally, Memphis has a 3-2 W-L record, 4-1-0 ATS record and 2-3-0 O/U record against teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back this season.
• Notably, the Grizzlies are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
• Notably, the Heat and Grizzlies are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.

First Quarter Winner

Miami is -230 to win the first quarter, while Memphis is +190. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Miami	36-20-1	15-12-0	21-8-1	21-8-0	15-12-1	7-3-0
Memphis	24-28-2	12-14-1	12-14-1	10-7-1	14-21-1	3-6-1

First Half Winner

Miami is -340 to win the first half and Memphis is +270. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Miami	35-20-2	18-8-1	17-12-1	21-8-0	14-12-2	8-2-0
Memphis	24-28-2	14-12-1	10-16-1	11-7-0	13-21-2	4-5-1

HT/FT

Miami is -330 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Memphis is +650.

• The Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 45.6% of games this season, while the Grizzlies have completed the HT/FT double in 22.2% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Saturday's matchup is +2000 to go to overtime.

• The Heat have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Grizzlies have appeared in two.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 36 of Miami's 57 games this season. Meanwhile, 29 of Memphis' 54 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Miami recorded a 146-114 blowout victory against Memphis at FedExForum when these teams last met on October 24. Jaime Jaquez Jr. was prominent on that day, recording 17 points, 10 rebounds, six assists and two steals. That result snapped the Grizzlies' three-game winning streak against the Heat.