NBA Prop Bets: Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat (February 24, 2026)

The Miami Heat (31-27) face the Milwaukee Bucks (24-31) at Fiserv Forum. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday's matchup. The Heat opened as 5.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 6.5, leaving the Heat at -238 and Bucks at +195. The total points line is set at 228.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 118-111 Miami.

• The Bucks (-112) have a 25-30-0 ATS record this season, while the Heat (-108) hold a record of 33-24-1.
• The Bucks have a 22-33-0 O/U record this season (meaning 22 games have gone over the total points line and 33 have gone under). The Heat have a 29-28-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Bucks are averaging 112.0 points per game this season (27th in the league). Comparatively, the Heat are averaging +8.1 more at 120.0 points (2nd).
• Defensively, the Bucks are giving up 115.4 points per game this season (15th in the league), while the Heat are giving up an average of 116.9 points (20th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Bucks currently rank 23rd for pace this season, recording 97.7 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Heat sit 1st on that scale with 104.0 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 43.5% of the Bucks' field goal attempts come from three point range (13th in the league), leaving 56.5% from two. Meanwhile, the Heat's opponents are taking 42.5% of their attempts from three (28th) and 57.5% from two.
• Comparatively, Miami takes 39.6% of shots from three (16th), leaving 60.4% from two, while Milwaukee's opponents are attempting 44.3% from three (26th) and 55.7% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Bucks are shooting 39.1% from deep in 2025/26 (2nd in the NBA), compared to the Heat who are making 36.1% of their attempts (13th).
• On the opposite end, Milwaukee is holding opponents to 36.5% of their three-point attempts (22nd), while Miami's opponents are hitting 34.8% of their shots (6th).

Ball Protection

• The Bucks are committing 14.5 turnovers per game this season, ranking 13th in the league, while the Heat are forcing 15.6 turnovers (9th).
• Flipping that script, Milwaukee is forcing only 13.0 turnovers (27th), while Miami is committing just 14.1 (10th).

Crashing the Boards

• Milwaukee is pulling down 41.2 rebounds per game this season (27th in the league), including 8.8 offensive boards (30th). Conversely, Miami's opponents are averaging 47.2 rebounds (29th), 11.8 of which have come on the offensive end (22nd).
• Meanwhile, the Heat are averaging 47.2 rebounds (2nd) and 12.1 offensive rebounds (T10th), while the Bucks are allowing 44.5 and 11.0, ranking 17th and 8th.

First Quarter Winner

Milwaukee is +130 to win the first quarter, while Miami is -155. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Milwaukee	23-29-3	10-14-1	13-15-2	9-11-1	14-18-2	3-6-1
Miami	37-20-1	16-12-0	21-8-1	22-8-0	15-12-1	8-2-0

First Half Winner

Milwaukee is +154 to win the first half and Miami is -185. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Milwaukee	22-33-0	9-16-0	13-17-0	8-13-0	14-20-0	6-4-0
Miami	36-20-2	19-8-1	17-12-1	22-8-0	14-12-2	8-2-0

HT/FT

Milwaukee is +260 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Miami is -145.

• The Bucks have completed the HT/FT double in 27.3% of games this season, while the Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 46.6% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Tuesday's matchup is +1300 to go to overtime.

• The Bucks have played in three games that went to overtime this season, while the Heat have appeared in one.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 24 of Milwaukee's 55 games this season. Meanwhile, 37 of Miami's 58 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Miami recorded a 106-103 victory over Milwaukee at Kaseya Center when these teams last met on November 26. Tyler Herro was influential on that day, recording 29 points, five rebounds and seven assists. That result snapped the Bucks' four-game winning streak against the Heat.