NBA Prop Bets: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder (March 1, 2026)

The Oklahoma City Thunder (46-15) face the Dallas Mavericks (21-38) at American Airlines Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Sunday's matchup. The Thunder opened as 15.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 16.5, leaving the Thunder at -1200 and Mavericks at +750. The total points line is set at 236.5, with OVER at -105 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 126-110 Oklahoma City.

• The Mavericks (-115) have a 26-32-1 ATS record this season, while the Thunder (-105) hold a record of 31-30-0.
• The Mavericks have a 27-32-0 O/U record this season (meaning 27 games have gone over the total points line and 32 have gone under). The Thunder have a 34-27-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Mavericks are averaging 114.4 points per game this season (22nd in the league). Comparatively, the Thunder are averaging +5.1 more at 119.5 points (3rd).
• Defensively, the Mavericks are giving up 118.0 points per game this season (23rd in the league), while the Thunder are giving up an average of 108.2 points (2nd).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Mavericks currently rank 4th for pace this season, recording 101.8 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Thunder sit 17th on that scale with 99.4 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 35.0% of the Mavericks' field goal attempts come from three point range (28th in the league), leaving 65.0% from two. Meanwhile, the Thunder's opponents are taking 44.0% of their attempts from three (25th) and 56.0% from two.
• Comparatively, Oklahoma City takes 42.0% of shots from three (15th), leaving 58.0% from two, while Dallas' opponents are attempting 38.1% from three (9th) and 61.9% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Mavericks are shooting an underwhelming 34.3% from deep in 2025/26 (27th in the NBA), compared to the Thunder who are making 36.5% of their attempts (9th).
• On the opposite end, Dallas is holding opponents to 34.3% of their three-point attempts (1st), while Oklahoma City's opponents are doing things easier, hitting 36.8% of their shots (26th).

Ball Protection

• The Mavericks are committing 14.8 turnovers per game this season, ranking T17th in the league, while the Thunder are forcing 17.0 turnovers (2nd).
• Flipping that script, Dallas is forcing only 13.4 turnovers (25th), while Oklahoma City is committing just 12.7 (2nd).

Crashing the Boards

• Dallas is pulling down 44.7 rebounds per game this season (10th in the league), including 10.1 offensive boards (25th). Conversely, Oklahoma City's opponents are averaging a whopping 45.4 rebounds (24th), 12.1 of which have come on the offensive end (25th).
• Meanwhile, the Thunder are averaging 43.9 rebounds (T15th) and 9.5 offensive rebounds (28th), while the Mavericks are allowing 46.6 and 12.3, ranking 27th and 28th.

First Quarter Winner

Dallas is +250 to win the first quarter, while Oklahoma City is -310. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Dallas	19-38-2	12-19-1	7-19-1	10-11-0	9-27-2	2-8-0
Oklahoma City	36-20-5	18-10-4	18-10-1	34-18-5	2-2-0	4-5-1

First Half Winner

Dallas is +410 to win the first half and Oklahoma City is -550. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Dallas	20-38-1	11-20-1	9-18-0	10-11-0	10-27-1	2-8-0
Oklahoma City	43-18-0	22-10-0	21-8-0	41-16-0	2-2-0	6-4-0

HT/FT

Dallas is +1100 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Oklahoma City is -750.

• The Mavericks have completed the HT/FT double in 23.7% of games this season, while the Thunder have completed the HT/FT double in 59.0% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Sunday's matchup is +3500 to go to overtime.

• The Mavericks have played in four games that went to overtime this season, while the Thunder have also appeared in four.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 33 of Dallas' 59 games this season. Meanwhile, 21 of Oklahoma City's 61 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Oklahoma City recorded a 132-111 blowout victory against Dallas at Paycom Center when these teams last met on December 5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was influential on that day, recording 33 points, five rebounds and six assists.