NBA Prop Bets: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets (March 9, 2026)
The Denver Nuggets (39-25) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (50-15) at Paycom Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Monday's matchup. The Thunder are favored to win at -290, currently marked as 7.5-point favorites, while the Nuggets are at +235. The total points line is set at 231.5, with OVER at -105 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 120-112 Oklahoma City.
- The Thunder (-105) have a 31-34-0 ATS record this season, while the Nuggets (-115) hold a record of 35-29-0.
- The Thunder have a 34-31-0 O/U record this season (meaning 34 games have gone over the total points line and 31 have gone under). The Nuggets have a 39-24-1 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Thunder are averaging 118.6 points per game this season (4th in the league). Comparatively, the Nuggets are averaging 120.2 (1st).
- Defensively, the Thunder are giving up only 107.6 points per game this season (2nd in the league), while the Nuggets are giving up an average of 116.5 points (19th).
Game Style
What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?
Pace
- The Thunder currently rank 18th for pace this season, recording 99.3 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Nuggets sit 22nd on that scale with 97.9 possessions per contest.
Field Goal Split
- Looking at field goal splits, 42.4% of the Thunder's field goal attempts come from three point range (13th in the league), leaving 57.6% from two. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' opponents are taking 42.1% of their attempts from three (22nd) and 57.9% from two.
- Comparatively, Denver takes 40.5% of shots from three (21st), leaving 59.5% from two, while Oklahoma City's opponents are attempting 44.1% from three (26th) and 55.9% from two.
Beyond the Arc
- In terms of made three-pointers, the Thunder are shooting 36.1% from deep in 2025/26 (11th in the NBA), compared to the Nuggets who are making 38.9% of their attempts (1st).
- On the opposite end, Oklahoma City is holding opponents to 36.5% of their three-point attempts (22nd), while Denver's opponents are hitting 35.3% of their shots (10th).
Ball Protection
- The Thunder are committing just 12.7 turnovers per game this season, ranking 2nd in the league. As such, the Nuggets aren't likely to pressurise their opponents in this area given they're forcing only 12.1 turnovers per contest (30th).
- Flipping that script, Oklahoma City is forcing 17.0 turnovers (2nd), while Denver is committing 13.1 (3rd).
Crashing the Boards
- Oklahoma City is pulling down 43.9 rebounds per game this season (15th in the league), including 9.4 offensive boards (29th). Conversely, Denver's opponents are averaging 42.7 rebounds (8th), 11.3 of which have come on the offensive end (14th).
- Meanwhile, the Nuggets are averaging 43.0 rebounds (21st) and 9.7 offensive rebounds (26th), while the Thunder are allowing 45.6 and 12.1, ranking 25th and 24th.
First Quarter Winner
Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 40-20-5 | 19-10-4 | 21-10-1 | 38-18-5 | 2-2-0 | 6-4-0 |
| Denver | 40-22-2 | 21-9-0 | 19-13-2 | 29-14-1 | 11-8-1 | 6-4-0 |
First Half Winner
Here are their first half records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 47-18-0 | 23-10-0 | 24-8-0 | 45-16-0 | 2-2-0 | 7-3-0 |
| Denver | 36-25-3 | 20-10-0 | 16-15-3 | 27-16-1 | 9-9-2 | 5-5-0 |
HT/FT
- The Thunder have completed the HT/FT double in 61.5% of games this season, while the Nuggets have completed the HT/FT double in 40.6% of games.
To Go To Overtime
- The Thunder have played in four games that went to overtime this season, while the Nuggets have appeared in six.
Both Teams 110+
- Both teams have scored 110+ points in 21 of Oklahoma City's 65 games this season. Meanwhile, 39 of Denver's 64 games have seen both squads reach that number.
Last Time They Met
Oklahoma City recorded a 127-121 overtime victory over Denver at Paycom Center when these teams last met on February 27. Despite being on the losing side, Nikola Jokic had a triple-double for the ages on that day, finishing with 23 points, 17 rebounds and 14 assists. The Thunder have now won three straight against the Nuggets.
NBA Injury News – Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (March 9, 2026)
The Nuggets listed Murray as Questionable for Monday's (Mar. 9) game against Oklahoma City.
Watson is expected to miss at least four weeks with his Grade 2 right hamstring strain, according to Michael Scotto of USA Today.
The Thunder listed Holmgren as Questionable for Monday's (Mar. 9) game against Denver.
The Thunder listed Williams as OUT for Monday's (Mar. 9) game against Denver.
The Thunder listed Hartenstein as OUT for Monday's (Mar. 9) game against Denver.
The Thunder listed Caruso as Questionable for Monday's (Mar. 9) game against Denver.
The Thunder listed Carlson as OUT for Monday's (Mar. 9) game against Denver.
The Thunder announced on Friday (Sept. 5) that Sorber will miss the 2025-2026 season with a torn ACL.
