NBA Prop Bets: Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs (March 23, 2026)

The San Antonio Spurs (53-19) face the Miami Heat (38-33) at Kaseya Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Monday's matchup. The Spurs are favored to win at -205, currently marked as 5.5-point favorites, while the Heat are at +170. The total points line is set at 239.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 122-117 San Antonio.

• The Heat (-115) have a 41-29-1 ATS record this season, while the Spurs (-105) hold a record of 40-31-1.
• The Heat have a 38-32-1 O/U record this season (meaning 38 games have gone over the total points line, 32 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Spurs have a 31-41-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Heat are averaging 120.3 points per game this season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Spurs are averaging 119.0 (3rd).
• Defensively, the Heat are giving up 117.2 points per game this season (21st in the league), while the Spurs are giving up an average of 111.7 points (7th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Heat currently rank 1st for pace this season, recording 103.6 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Spurs sit 12th on that scale with 100.0 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 39.9% of the Heat's field goal attempts come from three point range (16th in the league), leaving 60.1% from two. Meanwhile, the Spurs' opponents are taking 40.2% of their attempts from three (14th) and 59.8% from two.
• Comparatively, San Antonio takes 42.3% of shots from three (13th), leaving 57.7% from two, while Miami's opponents are attempting 42.2% from three (27th) and 57.8% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Heat are shooting 35.8% from deep in 2025/26 (16th in the NBA), compared to the Spurs who are making 35.9% of their attempts (14th).
• On the opposite end, Miami is holding opponents to 35.1% of their three-point attempts (7th), while San Antonio's opponents are hitting 35.6% of their shots (13th).

Ball Protection

• The Heat are committing just 13.8 turnovers per game this season, ranking 9th in the league. As such, the Spurs aren't likely to pressurise their opponents in this area given they're forcing only 13.1 turnovers per contest (T24th).
• Flipping that script, Miami is forcing 15.6 turnovers (9th), while San Antonio is committing 13.5 (4th).

Crashing the Boards

• Miami is pulling down 46.8 rebounds per game this season (2nd in the league), including 12.1 offensive boards (9th). Conversely, San Antonio's opponents are averaging 42.9 rebounds (9th), 10.5 of which have come on the offensive end (4th).
• Meanwhile, the Spurs are averaging an impressive 46.6 rebounds (3rd) and 11.2 offensive rebounds (15th), while the Heat are allowing 46.6 and 11.7, ranking 28th and 20th.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Miami	45-25-1	23-13-0	22-12-1	27-10-0	18-15-1	7-3-0
San Antonio	48-23-1	25-10-0	23-13-1	37-16-1	11-7-0	5-5-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Miami	42-27-2	25-10-1	17-17-1	27-10-0	15-17-2	6-4-0
San Antonio	49-22-1	25-9-1	24-13-0	36-17-1	13-5-0	7-2-1

HT/FT

• The Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 45.1% of games this season, while the Spurs have completed the HT/FT double in 54.2% of games.

To Go To Overtime

• The Heat have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Spurs have also appeared in one.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 46 of Miami's 71 games this season. Meanwhile, 35 of San Antonio's 71 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

San Antonio recorded a 107-101 victory over Miami at Frost Bank Center when these teams last met on October 30. Victor Wembanyama came up big on that day, scoring 27 points and adding 18 rebounds. That result snapped the Heat's five-game winning streak against the Spurs.