NBA Prop Bets: Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors (March 23, 2026)
The Golden State Warriors (33-38) face the Dallas Mavericks (23-48) at American Airlines Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Monday's matchup. The Warriors opened as 2.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 3.5, leaving the Warriors at -135 and Mavericks at +114. The total points line is set at 230.5, with OVER at -105 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 117-114 Golden State.
- The Mavericks (-120) have a 31-39-1 ATS record this season, while the Warriors (+100) hold a record of 31-40-0.
- The Mavericks have a 31-40-0 O/U record this season (meaning 31 games have gone over the total points line and 40 have gone under). The Warriors have a 42-28-1 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Mavericks are averaging 113.5 points per game this season (24th in the league). Comparatively, the Warriors are averaging 114.7 (19th).
- Defensively, the Mavericks are giving up 118.7 points per game this season (23rd in the league), while the Warriors are giving up an average of 114.6 points (13th).
Game Style
What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?
Pace
- The Mavericks currently rank 5th for pace this season, recording 101.5 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Warriors sit 18th on that scale with 99.3 possessions per contest.
Field Goal Split
- Looking at field goal splits, just 35.0% of the Mavericks' field goal attempts come from three point range (27th in the league), leaving 65.0% from two. Meanwhile, the Warriors' opponents are taking only 40.3% of their attempts from three (8th) and 59.7% from two.
- Comparatively, Golden State takes 50.3% of shots from three (1st), leaving 49.7% from two, while Dallas' opponents are attempting 38.9% from three (15th) and 61.1% from two.
Beyond the Arc
- In terms of made three-pointers, the Mavericks are shooting 34.3% from deep in 2025/26 (27th in the NBA), compared to the Warriors who are making 35.6% of their attempts (18th).
- On the opposite end, Dallas is holding opponents to 34.6% of their three-point attempts (2nd), while Golden State's opponents are hitting 35.2% of their shots (8th).
Ball Protection
- The Mavericks are committing 14.8 turnovers per game this season, ranking 19th in the league, while the Warriors are forcing 16.0 turnovers (5th).
- Flipping that script, Dallas is forcing 13.1 turnovers (24th), while Golden State is committing 15.6 (24th).
Crashing the Boards
- Dallas is pulling down 44.9 rebounds per game this season (10th in the league), including 10.4 offensive boards (23rd). Conversely, Golden State's opponents are averaging 45.0 rebounds (20th), 11.9 of which have come on the offensive end (23rd).
- Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging 42.5 rebounds (22nd) and 11.5 offensive rebounds (T13th), while the Mavericks are allowing 46.5 and 12.1, ranking 27th and 26th.
First Quarter Winner
Dallas is +114 to win the first quarter, while Golden State is -135. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 24-45-2 | 13-22-1 | 11-23-1 | 11-11-0 | 13-34-2 | 5-5-0 |
| Golden State | 31-36-4 | 15-17-2 | 16-19-2 | 20-20-4 | 11-16-0 | 6-4-0 |
First Half Winner
Dallas is +105 to win the first half and Golden State is -125. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 24-46-1 | 12-23-1 | 12-23-0 | 11-11-0 | 13-35-1 | 4-6-0 |
| Golden State | 38-33-0 | 19-15-0 | 19-18-0 | 27-17-0 | 11-16-0 | 3-7-0 |
HT/FT
Dallas is +180 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Golden State is +100.
- The Mavericks have completed the HT/FT double in 22.5% of games this season, while the Warriors have completed the HT/FT double in 38.0% of games.
To Go To Overtime
Monday's matchup is +1600 to go to overtime.
- The Mavericks have played in five games that went to overtime this season, while the Warriors have appeared in four.
Both Teams 110+
- Both teams have scored 110+ points in 40 of Dallas' 71 games this season. Meanwhile, 37 of Golden State's 71 games have seen both squads reach that number.
Last Time They Met
Dallas recorded an upset 123-115 victory over Golden State at American Airlines Center when these teams last met on January 22. The Mavericks have now won four straight at American Airlines Center against the Warriors. Naji Marshall was influential on that day, recording 30 points, seven rebounds and nine assists.
