NBA Prop Bets: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks (April 12, 2026)

The Atlanta Hawks (46-35) face the Miami Heat (42-39) at Kaseya Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Sunday's matchup. The Hawks are favored to win at -250, currently marked as 6.5-point favorites, while the Heat are at +205. The total points line is set at 243.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 125-118 Atlanta.

The Heat (-105) have a 44-36-1 ATS record this season, while the Hawks (-115) hold a record of 44-37-0.
The Heat have a 45-35-1 O/U record this season (meaning 45 games have gone over the total points line, 35 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Hawks have a 40-41-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

The Heat are averaging 120.6 points per game this season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Hawks are averaging 118.5 (6th).
Defensively, the Heat are giving up 118.6 points per game this season (22nd in the league), while the Hawks are giving up an average of 115.7 points (17th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

The Heat currently rank 1st for pace this season, recording 103.4 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Hawks sit 4th on that scale with 101.6 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

Looking at field goal splits, 40.7% of the Heat's field goal attempts come from three point range (13th in the league), leaving 59.3% from two. Meanwhile, the Hawks' opponents are taking 40.6% of their attempts from three (11th) and 59.4% from two.
Comparatively, Atlanta takes 42.9% of shots from three (8th), leaving 57.1% from two, while Miami's opponents are attempting 41.8% from three (25th) and 58.2% from two.

Beyond the Arc

In terms of made three-pointers, the Heat are shooting 36.1% from deep in 2025/26 (11th in the NBA), compared to the Hawks who are making 37.1% of their attempts (6th).
On the opposite end, Miami is holding opponents to 35.8% of their three-point attempts (16th), while Atlanta's opponents are hitting 35.5% of their shots (13th).

Ball Protection

The Heat are committing 13.7 turnovers per game this season, ranking 8th in the league, while the Hawks are forcing 16.2 turnovers (4th).
Flipping that script, Miami is forcing 15.0 turnovers (12th), while Atlanta is committing 14.1 (11th).

Crashing the Boards

Miami is pulling down 46.3 rebounds per game this season (4th in the league), including 11.8 offensive boards (10th). Conversely, Atlanta's opponents are averaging 45.2 rebounds (21st), 11.1 of which have come on the offensive end (11th).
Meanwhile, the Hawks are averaging 43.5 rebounds (18th) and 11.0 offensive rebounds (20th), while the Heat are allowing 46.4 and 11.6, ranking 26th and 20th.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Miami	50-30-1	25-15-0	25-15-1	30-10-0	20-20-1	5-5-0
Atlanta	41-36-4	20-17-4	21-19-0	24-15-3	17-21-1	5-5-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Miami	45-34-2	26-13-1	19-21-1	29-11-0	16-23-2	3-7-0
Atlanta	46-32-3	23-16-2	23-16-1	30-11-1	16-21-2	9-0-1

HT/FT

The Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 43.2% of games this season, while the Hawks have completed the HT/FT double in 44.4% of games.

To Go To Overtime

The Heat have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Hawks have appeared in two.

Both Teams 110+

Both teams have scored 110+ points in 53 of Miami's 81 games this season. Meanwhile, 42 of Atlanta's 81 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Miami recorded a 128-97 blowout victory against Atlanta at State Farm Arena when these teams last met on February 20. Despite being on the losing side, Jalen Johnson had a triple-double for the ages on that day, finishing with 16 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists. The Heat have now won three straight at State Farm Arena against the Hawks.