NBA Prop Bets: Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons (October 23, 2026)

The Detroit Pistons (1-0) face the Miami Heat (0-1) at Kaseya Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Friday's matchup. This contest is a pick'em, with both Miami and Detroit at -110 to win. The total points line is set at 236.5, with OVER at -105 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 119-118 Miami.

The Heat (-102) have a 46-37-1 ATS record since the beginning of last season, while the Pistons (-118) hold a record of 51-46-0 across the same span.
The Heat have a 47-35-2 O/U record since the beginning of last season (meaning 47 games have gone over the total points line, 35 have gone under and two have resulted in a push). The Pistons have a 45-50-2 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

The Heat have scored 120.7 points per game since the beginning of last season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Pistons have averaged 117.8 over the same span (8th).
Defensively, the Heat have allowed 118.7 points per game since the beginning of last season (22nd in the league), while the Pistons have given up an average of 109.7 points over that span (3rd).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams have played since the beginning of last season?

Pace

The Heat rank 1st for pace since the beginning of last season, recording 103.5 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Pistons sit 17th on that scale with 99.2 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

Looking at field goal splits, 40.6% of the Heat's field goal attempts have come from three point range since the beginning of last season (15th in the league), leaving 59.4% from two. Meanwhile, the Pistons' opponents are taking 43.2% of their attempts from three (16th) and 56.8% from two.
Comparatively, Detroit has taken 34.7% of shots from three (29th), leaving 65.3% from two, while Miami's opponents have attempted 42.0% from three (25th) and 58.0% from two.

Beyond the Arc

In terms of made three-pointers, the Heat have shot 36.0% from deep since the beginning of last season (11th in the NBA), compared to the Pistons who are making 35.6% of their attempts (17th).
On the opposite end, Miami has held opponents to 36.0% of their three-point attempts (17th), while Detroit's opponents have hit 34.6% of their shots (1st).

Ball Protection

The Heat are committing 13.7 turnovers per game since the beginning of last season, ranking 8th in the league, while the Pistons have forced 16.9 turnovers (1st) across the same period.
Flipping that script, Miami has forced 15.0 turnovers (12th), while Detroit has committed 15.2 (21st).

Crashing the Boards

Miami is pulling down 46.1 rebounds per game since the beginning of last season (4th in the league), including 11.7 offensive boards (10th). Conversely, Detroit's opponents are averaging 40.5 rebounds (3rd), 11.3 of which have come on the offensive end (T14th).
Meanwhile, the Pistons have averaged an impressive 45.6 rebounds (8th) and 13.1 offensive rebounds (3rd), while the Heat are allowing 46.5 and 11.6, ranking 26th and 20th.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Miami	51-32-1	26-16-0	25-16-1	31-11-0	20-21-1
Detroit	54-40-3	26-23-1	28-17-2	45-30-3	9-10-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Miami	47-35-2	27-14-1	20-21-1	30-12-0	17-23-2
Detroit	65-29-3	34-13-3	31-16-0	52-23-3	13-6-0

HT/FT

The Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 42.9% of games since the beginning of last season, while the Pistons have completed the HT/FT double in 58.8% of games.

To Go To Overtime

The Heat have played in two games that went to overtime since the beginning of last season, while the Pistons have appeared in six.

Both Teams 110+

Both teams have scored 110+ points in 55 of Miami's 84 games since the beginning of last season. Meanwhile, 40 of Detroit's 97 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Miami recorded a 121-110 victory over Detroit at Kaseya Center when these teams last met on March 8, 2026. Bam Adebayo was influential on that day, recording 24 points, nine rebounds and six assists.