NBA Prop Bets: Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets (November 9, 2026)

The Denver Nuggets (5-3) face the Houston Rockets (7-3) at Toyota Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Monday's matchup. The Rockets opened as 4.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 8.5, leaving the Rockets at -344 and Nuggets at +276. The total points line is set at 219.5, with OVER at -112 and UNDER at -108, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 114-106 Houston.

The Rockets (-117) have a 7-3-0 ATS record this season, while the Nuggets (-103) hold a record of 4-4-0.
The Rockets have a 6-3-1 O/U record this season (meaning six games have gone over the total points line, three have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Nuggets have a 4-4-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

The Rockets are averaging 116.0 points per game this season (11th in the league). Comparatively, the Nuggets are averaging 115.3 (13th).
Defensively, the Rockets are giving up only 107.0 points per game this season (T5th in the league), while the Nuggets are giving up an average of 113.1 points (14th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

The Rockets currently rank 26th for pace this season, recording 97.2 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Nuggets sit 27th on that scale with 96.8 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

Looking at field goal splits, 39.3% of the Rockets' field goal attempts come from three point range (26th in the league), leaving 60.7% from two. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' opponents are taking 44.2% of their attempts from three (22nd) and 55.8% from two.
Comparatively, Denver takes 38.2% of shots from three (28th), leaving 61.8% from two, while Houston's opponents are attempting 43.4% from three (16th) and 56.6% from two.

Beyond the Arc

In terms of made three-pointers, the Rockets are shooting 37.6% from deep in 2026/27 (7th in the NBA), compared to the Nuggets who are making 36.0% of their attempts (10th).
On the opposite end, Houston is holding opponents to 31.6% of their three-point attempts (2nd), while Denver's opponents are hitting 34.7% of their shots (16th).

Ball Protection

The Rockets are committing 15.7 turnovers per game this season, ranking 15th in the league, while the Nuggets are forcing 15.5 turnovers (16th).
Flipping that script, Houston is forcing 16.1 turnovers (13th), while Denver is committing 14.4 (5th).

Crashing the Boards

Houston is pulling down 44.0 rebounds per game this season (14th in the league), including 12.9 offensive boards (10th). Conversely, Denver's opponents are averaging 43.9 rebounds (17th), 13.0 of which have come on the offensive end (23rd).
Meanwhile, the Nuggets are averaging 42.8 rebounds (20th) and 10.6 offensive rebounds (25th), while the Rockets are allowing 40.1 and 12.1, ranking 1st and 15th.

First Quarter Winner

Houston is -198 to win the first quarter, while Denver is +164. Here are their first quarter records in 2026/27.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Houston	5-4-1	2-2-1	3-2-0	3-4-1	2-0-0	5-4-1
Denver	5-3-0	2-2-0	3-1-0	4-3-0	1-0-0	7-3-0

First Half Winner

Houston is -270 to win the first half and Denver is +220. Here are their first half records in 2026/27.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Houston	7-1-2	3-1-1	4-0-1	5-1-2	2-0-0	7-1-2
Denver	5-3-0	1-3-0	4-0-0	4-3-0	1-0-0	6-4-0

HT/FT

Houston is -215 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Denver is +370.

The Rockets have completed the HT/FT double in 60.0% of games this season, while the Nuggets have completed the HT/FT double in 37.5% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Monday's matchup is +2000 to go to overtime.

The Rockets have played in nine games that went to overtime since the beginning of last season, while the Nuggets have appeared in 10.

Both Teams 110+

Both teams have scored 110+ points in five of Houston's 10 games this season. Meanwhile, four of Denver's eight games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Denver recorded a 129-93 blowout victory against Houston at Ball Arena when these teams last met on March 11, 2026. Nikola Jokic was everywhere on that day, finishing with a 16-point, 12-rebound, 13-assist triple-double.