NHL Prop Bets: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres (February 28, 2026)
The Buffalo Sabres (34-19-6) face the Tampa Bay Lightning (38-15-4) at Benchmark International Arena. Let's take a look at the NHL Prop Bets for Saturday's matchup. The Lightning are favored to win at -238. They're currently +110 to cover the -1.5 puck line while the Sabres are -130 to cover the +1.5 puck line.
- The Sabres have a 35-24 Puck Line record this season, while the Lightning hold a record of 29-28.
The total goals line is set at 6.5, with OVER at +100 and UNDER at -120.
- The Sabres have a 28-28-3 O/U record this season (meaning 28 games have gone over the total points line, 28 have gone under and three have resulted in a push). The Lightning have a 27-27-3 O/U record.
Goals For Insights
- The Sabres are averaging 3.34 goals per game this season (9th in the league). Comparatively, the Lightning are averaging 3.56 (2nd).
- Defensively, the Sabres are giving up 3.03 goals per game this season (14th in the league), while the Lightning are giving up an average of 2.54 goals (2nd).
Shots
- Looking at creating chances to score, Buffalo is averaging just 27.8 shots per game this season (18th in the NHL). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is at the opposite end of the spectrum while defending, allowing its opposition only 26.6 shots per game (7th).
- Flipping that script, the Sabres are allowing 30.0 shots per game (27th in the NHL), while the Lightning are averaging 28.3 shots (15th).
Power Play
- Buffalo holds a power play percentage of 20.0%, ranking 15th in the league this season, while Tampa Bay sits T10th with 22.2% of its power play opportunities converted.
Penalty Kill %
- On the opposite end, the Sabres have a penalty kill rate of 82.5% (ranked 7th), compared to the Lightning at 83.1% (5th).
P1 Result
Buffalo is +265 to win the first period, while Tampa Bay is +120.
- Here are their first period records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 18-22-19 | 10-10-8 | 8-12-11 | 4-2-4 |
| Tampa Bay | 26-17-14 | 12-8-8 | 14-9-6 | 2-4-4 |
To Go To Overtime
Saturday's matchup is +300 to go to overtime.
- The Sabres have played in 12 games that have gone to overtime this season, while the Lightning have appeared in 13.
To Go To a Shootout
- The Sabres have played in 3 games that have gone to a shootout this season, while the Lightning have appeared in 6.
Last Time They Met
Tampa Bay recorded a 3-4 overtime victory over Buffalo at Benchmark International Arena when these teams last met on February 3. Nikita Kucherov led the way to that result, recording 1 goal and 3 assists. The Lightning have now won three straight at Benchmark International Arena against the Sabres.
