NBA Prop Bets: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat (January 10, 2026)
The Miami Heat (20-17) face the Indiana Pacers (7-31) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Saturday's matchup. The Heat opened as 7.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 6.5, leaving the Heat at -245 and Pacers at +200. The total points line is set at 235.5, with OVER at -112 and UNDER at -108, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 121-114 Miami.
- The Heat (-108) have a 20-16-1 ATS record this season, while the Pacers (-112) hold a record of 19-19-0.
- The Heat have a 17-19-1 O/U record this season (meaning 17 games have gone over the total points line, 19 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Pacers have a 15-23-0 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Heat are averaging 120.1 points per game this season (4th in the league). Comparatively, the Pacers are averaging only 110.8 (28th).
- Defensively, the Heat are giving up 117.4 points per game this season (20th in the league), while the Pacers are giving up an average of 119.5 points (25th).
Game Style
What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?
Pace
- The Heat currently rank 1st for pace this season, recording 104.4 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Pacers sit 11th on that scale with 100.7 possessions per contest.
Field Goal Split
- Looking at field goal splits, 38.0% of the Heat's field goal attempts come from three point range (21st in the league), leaving 62.0% from two. Meanwhile, the Pacers' opponents are taking 38.5% of their attempts from three (3rd) and 61.5% from two.
- Comparatively, Indiana takes 40.5% of shots from three (18th), leaving 59.5% from two, while Miami's opponents are attempting 43.1% from three (28th) and 56.9% from two.
Beyond the Arc
- In terms of made three-pointers, the Heat are shooting 37.0% from deep in 2025/26 (9th in the NBA), compared to the Pacers who are making an underwhelming 34.0% of their attempts (27th).
- On the opposite end, Miami is holding opponents to 34.4% of their three-point attempts (3rd), while Indiana's opponents are hitting 34.3% of their shots (2nd).
Ball Protection
- The Heat are committing 14.4 turnovers per game this season, ranking 13th in the league, while the Pacers are forcing 14.4 turnovers (18th).
- Flipping that script, Miami is forcing 16.2 turnovers (4th), while Indiana is committing 14.1 (10th).
Crashing the Boards
- Miami is pulling down 45.6 rebounds per game this season (6th in the league), including 11.1 offensive boards (19th). Conversely, Indiana's opponents are averaging a whopping 47.2 rebounds (27th), 11.4 of which have come on the offensive end (11th).
- Meanwhile, the Pacers are averaging 42.4 rebounds (24th) and 10.9 offensive rebounds (21st), while the Heat are allowing 47.2 and 12.0, ranking 28th and 25th.
First Quarter Winner
Miami is -162 to win the first quarter, while Indiana is +136. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 23-13-1 | 11-8-0 | 12-5-1 | 13-4-0 | 10-9-1 | 6-3-1 |
| Indiana | 14-23-1 | 9-11-0 | 5-12-1 | 3-2-0 | 11-21-1 | 6-4-0 |
First Half Winner
Miami is -192 to win the first half and Indiana is +160. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 21-14-2 | 13-5-1 | 8-9-1 | 12-5-0 | 9-9-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Indiana | 13-25-0 | 7-13-0 | 6-12-0 | 3-2-0 | 10-23-0 | 4-6-0 |
HT/FT
Miami is -135 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Indiana is +260.
- The Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 45.9% of games this season, while the Pacers have completed the HT/FT double in 15.8% of games.
To Go To Overtime
Saturday's matchup is +1200 to go to overtime.
- The Heat have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Pacers have also appeared in one.
Both Teams 110+
- Both teams have scored 110+ points in 22 of Miami's 37 games this season. Meanwhile, 19 of Indiana's 38 games have seen both squads reach that number.
Last Time They Met
Miami recorded a 142-116 blowout victory against Indiana at Kaseya Center when these teams last met on December 27. Despite being on the losing side, Pascal Siakam was prominent on that day, recording 33 points, seven rebounds, five assists and two steals.
