NBA Prop Bets: Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat (February 6, 2026)

The Miami Heat (27-25) face the Boston Celtics (33-18) at TD Garden. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Friday's matchup. The Celtics opened as 7.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 5.5, leaving the Celtics at -245 and Heat at +200. The total points line is set at 227.5, with OVER at -112 and UNDER at -108, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 116-111 Boston.

The Celtics (-118) have a 29-22-0 ATS record this season, while the Heat (-102) hold a record of 28-23-1.
The Celtics have a 19-32-0 O/U record this season (meaning 19 games have gone over the total points line and 32 have gone under). The Heat have a 27-24-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

The Celtics are averaging 115.9 points per game this season (14th in the league). Comparatively, the Heat are averaging +4.0 more at 119.9 points (3rd).
Defensively, the Celtics are giving up only 108.6 points per game this season (2nd in the league), while the Heat are giving up an average of 118.0 points (22nd).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

The Celtics currently rank 30th for pace this season, recording 95.2 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Heat sit 1st on that scale with 104.3 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

Looking at field goal splits, 46.5% of the Celtics' field goal attempts come from three point range (2nd in the league), leaving 53.5% from two. Notably, the Heat's opponents are taking 42.7% of their attempts from three (28th) and 57.3% from two.
Comparatively, Miami takes 39.0% of shots from three (17th), leaving 61.0% from two, while Boston's opponents are attempting 44.8% from three (26th) and 55.2% from two.

Beyond the Arc

In terms of made three-pointers, the Celtics are shooting 36.7% from deep in 2025/26 (10th in the NBA), compared to the Heat who are making 36.1% of their attempts (13th).
On the opposite end, Boston is holding opponents to 36.1% of their three-point attempts (19th), while Miami's opponents are hitting 35.0% of their shots (7th).

Ball Protection

The Celtics are committing 12.0 turnovers per game this season, ranking 1st in the league, while the Heat are forcing 15.8 turnovers (7th).
Flipping that script, Boston is forcing 13.4 turnovers (23rd), while Miami is committing 14.3 (10th).

Crashing the Boards

Boston is pulling down 45.3 rebounds per game this season (9th in the league), including 12.8 offensive boards (5th). Conversely, Miami's opponents are averaging a whopping 47.3 rebounds (29th), 11.9 of which have come on the offensive end (24th).
Meanwhile, the Heat are averaging 46.6 rebounds (2nd) and 11.8 offensive rebounds (12th), while the Celtics are allowing 42.3 and 11.5, ranking 7th and 15th.

First Quarter Winner

Boston is -162 to win the first quarter, while Miami is +136. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Boston	32-16-3	16-7-1	16-9-2	23-10-3	9-6-0	6-2-2
Miami	31-20-1	14-12-0	17-8-1	18-8-0	13-12-1	5-5-0

First Half Winner

Boston is -192 to win the first half and Miami is +160. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Boston	33-15-3	16-6-2	17-9-1	26-8-2	7-7-1	7-3-0
Miami	31-19-2	18-7-1	13-12-1	19-7-0	12-12-2	7-3-0

HT/FT

Boston is -135 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Miami is +255.

The Celtics have completed the HT/FT double in 49.0% of games this season, while the Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 44.2% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Friday's matchup is +1300 to go to overtime.

The Celtics have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Heat have also appeared in one.

Both Teams 110+

Both teams have scored 110+ points in 19 of Boston's 51 games this season. Meanwhile, 34 of Miami's 52 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Boston recorded a 119-114 victory over Miami at Kaseya Center when these teams last met on January 15. Anfernee Simons was lights out from deep on that day, finishing with 39 points and seven triples. The Celtics have now won nine straight at Kaseya Center against the Heat.