NBA Prop Bets: Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat (February 20, 2026)

The Miami Heat (29-27) face the Atlanta Hawks (27-30) at State Farm Arena. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Friday's matchup. The Heat opened as 2.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 3.5, leaving the Heat at -142 and Hawks at +120. The total points line is set at 243.5, with OVER at -112 and UNDER at -108, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 124-120 Miami.

The Hawks (-115) have a 27-30-0 ATS record this season, while the Heat (-105) hold a record of 31-24-1.
The Hawks have a 29-28-0 O/U record this season (meaning 29 games have gone over the total points line and 28 have gone under). The Heat have a 28-27-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

The Hawks are averaging 117.3 points per game this season (10th in the league). Comparatively, the Heat are averaging 119.6 (5th).
Defensively, the Hawks are giving up 118.4 points per game this season (24th in the league), while the Heat are giving up an average of 117.2 points (20th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

The Hawks currently rank 2nd for pace this season, recording 102.2 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Heat sit 1st on that scale with 104.0 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

Looking at field goal splits, 42.7% of the Hawks' field goal attempts come from three point range (10th in the league), leaving 57.3% from two. Meanwhile, the Heat's opponents are taking 42.5% of their attempts from three (27th) and 57.5% from two.
Comparatively, Miami takes 39.7% of shots from three (15th), leaving 60.3% from two, while Atlanta's opponents are attempting 41.1% from three (19th) and 58.9% from two.

Beyond the Arc

In terms of made three-pointers, the Hawks are shooting 36.9% from deep in 2025/26 (6th in the NBA), compared to the Heat who are making 36.0% of their attempts (14th).
On the opposite end, Atlanta is holding opponents to 35.8% of their three-point attempts (13th), while Miami's opponents are hitting 34.7% of their shots (6th).

Ball Protection

The Hawks are committing 14.3 turnovers per game this season, ranking 11th in the league, while the Heat are forcing 15.7 turnovers (8th).
Flipping that script, Atlanta is forcing 15.9 turnovers (6th), while Miami is committing 14.2 (10th).

Crashing the Boards

Atlanta is pulling down 42.4 rebounds per game this season (25th in the league), including 10.2 offensive boards (24th). Conversely, Miami's opponents are averaging 47.4 rebounds (29th), 11.9 of which have come on the offensive end (23rd).
Meanwhile, the Heat are averaging an impressive 46.9 rebounds (2nd) and 12.0 offensive rebounds (11th), while the Hawks are allowing 46.8 and 11.9, ranking 26th and 22nd.

Back-to-backs

Notably, the Heat are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
Miami holds a 9-4 W-L record on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, as well as a 9-4-0 ATS record and 6-7-0 O/U record.
Additionally, Atlanta has a 4-6 W-L record, 4-6-0 ATS record and 5-5-0 O/U record against teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back this season.

First Quarter Winner

Atlanta is +102 to win the first quarter, while Miami is -122. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Atlanta	27-26-4	10-11-4	17-15-0	12-9-3	15-17-1	5-4-1
Miami	35-20-1	15-12-0	20-8-1	20-8-0	15-12-1	7-3-0

First Half Winner

Atlanta is +114 to win the first half and Miami is -135. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Atlanta	27-28-2	10-14-1	17-14-1	14-10-0	13-18-2	4-5-1
Miami	34-20-2	18-8-1	16-12-1	20-8-0	14-12-2	8-2-0

HT/FT

Atlanta is +180 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Miami is +105.

The Hawks have completed the HT/FT double in 35.1% of games this season, while the Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 44.6% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Friday's matchup is +1200 to go to overtime.

The Hawks have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Heat have also appeared in one.

Both Teams 110+

Both teams have scored 110+ points in 33 of Atlanta's 57 games this season. Meanwhile, 36 of Miami's 56 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Atlanta recorded a 127-115 victory over Miami at Kaseya Center when these teams last met on February 3. Jalen Johnson was everywhere on that day, finishing with a 29-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist triple-double. That result snapped the Heat's four-game winning streak against the Hawks.