NBA Prop Bets: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets (February 27, 2026)

The Denver Nuggets (37-22) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15) at Paycom Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Friday's matchup. The Thunder are favored to win at -298, currently marked as 8.5-point favorites, while the Nuggets are at +240. The total points line is set at 233.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 121-112 Oklahoma City.

• The Thunder (-102) have a 31-29-0 ATS record this season, while the Nuggets (-118) hold a record of 33-26-0.
• The Thunder have a 33-27-0 O/U record this season (meaning 33 games have gone over the total points line and 27 have gone under). The Nuggets have a 36-22-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Thunder are averaging 119.3 points per game this season (4th in the league). Comparatively, the Nuggets are averaging 120.5 (1st).
• Defensively, the Thunder are giving up only 108.0 points per game this season (2nd in the league), while the Nuggets are giving up an average of 115.7 points (17th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Thunder currently rank 18th for pace this season, recording 99.3 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Nuggets sit 22nd on that scale with 97.8 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 42.2% of the Thunder's field goal attempts come from three point range (14th in the league), leaving 57.8% from two. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' opponents are taking 42.4% of their attempts from three (21st) and 57.6% from two.
• Comparatively, Denver takes 40.3% of shots from three (21st), leaving 59.7% from two, while Oklahoma City's opponents are attempting 43.9% from three (24th) and 56.1% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Thunder are shooting 36.5% from deep in 2025/26 (9th in the NBA), compared to the Nuggets who are making 39.3% of their attempts (1st).
• On the opposite end, Oklahoma City is holding opponents to 36.8% of their three-point attempts (26th), while Denver's opponents are doing it tougher, hitting 34.9% of their shots (7th).

Ball Protection

• The Thunder are committing just 12.7 turnovers per game this season, ranking 2nd in the league. As such, the Nuggets aren't likely to pressurise their opponents in this area given they're forcing only 12.2 turnovers per contest (30th).
• Flipping that script, Oklahoma City is forcing 17.0 turnovers (2nd), while Denver is committing 12.9 (3rd).

Crashing the Boards

• Oklahoma City is pulling down 43.7 rebounds per game this season (15th in the league), including 9.5 offensive boards (27th). Conversely, Denver's opponents are averaging 42.7 rebounds (8th), 11.6 of which have come on the offensive end (17th).
• Meanwhile, the Nuggets are averaging 43.2 rebounds (21st) and 9.7 offensive rebounds (26th), while the Thunder are allowing 45.3 and 12.1, ranking 23rd and 26th.

First Quarter Winner

Oklahoma City is -175 to win the first quarter, while Denver is +145. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Oklahoma City	36-19-5	18-9-4	18-10-1	34-17-5	2-2-0	5-4-1
Denver	36-21-2	18-9-0	18-12-2	26-13-1	10-8-1	5-5-0

First Half Winner

Oklahoma City is -245 to win the first half and Denver is +200. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Oklahoma City	43-17-0	22-9-0	21-8-0	41-15-0	2-2-0	7-3-0
Denver	34-22-3	19-8-0	15-14-3	26-13-1	8-9-2	4-6-0

HT/FT

Oklahoma City is -185 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Denver is +330.

• The Thunder have completed the HT/FT double in 60.0% of games this season, while the Nuggets have completed the HT/FT double in 42.4% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Friday's matchup is +1900 to go to overtime.

• The Thunder have played in three games that went to overtime this season, while the Nuggets have appeared in five.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 20 of Oklahoma City's 60 games this season. Meanwhile, 36 of Denver's 59 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Oklahoma City recorded a 121-111 victory over Denver at Ball Arena when these teams last met on February 1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander facilitated the offense on that day, finishing with 34 points and 13 assists.