NBA Prop Bets: San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets (March 12, 2026)

The Denver Nuggets (40-26) face the San Antonio Spurs (48-18) at Frost Bank Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Thursday's matchup. The Spurs are favored to win at -198, currently marked as 4.5-point favorites, while the Nuggets are at +164. The total points line is set at 235.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 120-116 San Antonio.

• The Spurs (-115) have a 38-27-1 ATS record this season, while the Nuggets (-105) hold a record of 37-29-0.
• The Spurs have a 28-38-0 O/U record this season (meaning 28 games have gone over the total points line and 38 have gone under). The Nuggets have a 40-25-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Spurs are averaging 118.7 points per game this season (5th in the league). Comparatively, the Nuggets are averaging 120.4 (2nd).
• Defensively, the Spurs are giving up 111.6 points per game this season (7th in the league), while the Nuggets are giving up an average of 116.3 points (19th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Spurs currently rank 12th for pace this season, recording 100.1 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Nuggets sit 22nd on that scale with 97.9 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 42.4% of the Spurs' field goal attempts come from three point range (14th in the league), leaving 57.6% from two. Meanwhile, the Nuggets' opponents are taking 42.1% of their attempts from three (22nd) and 57.9% from two.
• Comparatively, Denver takes 40.4% of shots from three (21st), leaving 59.6% from two, while San Antonio's opponents are attempting 40.0% from three (12th) and 60.0% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Spurs are shooting 35.7% from deep in 2025/26 (16th in the NBA), compared to the Nuggets who are making 39.2% of their attempts (1st).
• On the opposite end, San Antonio is holding opponents to 35.5% of their three-point attempts (12th), while Denver's opponents are hitting 35.1% of their shots (9th).

Ball Protection

• The Spurs are committing just 13.7 turnovers per game this season, ranking 5th in the league. As such, the Nuggets aren't likely to pressurise their opponents in this area given they're forcing only 12.0 turnovers per contest (30th).
• Flipping that script, San Antonio is forcing only 13.3 turnovers (24th), while Denver is committing just 13.0 (3rd).

Crashing the Boards

• San Antonio is pulling down 46.3 rebounds per game this season (3rd in the league), including 11.1 offensive boards (18th). Conversely, Denver's opponents are averaging 42.6 rebounds (8th), 11.3 of which have come on the offensive end (13th).
• Meanwhile, the Nuggets are averaging 43.2 rebounds (19th) and 9.7 offensive rebounds (26th), while the Spurs are allowing 43.2 and 10.7, ranking 11th and 5th.

Back-to-backs

• Notably, the Spurs are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
• San Antonio holds a 10-3 W-L record on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, as well as a 9-4-0 ATS record and 5-8-0 O/U record.
• Additionally, Denver has a 7-5 W-L record, 6-6-0 ATS record and 8-4-0 O/U record against teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back this season.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
San Antonio	44-21-1	22-9-0	22-12-1	33-14-1	11-7-0	5-5-0
Denver	42-22-2	22-9-0	20-13-2	30-14-1	12-8-1	7-3-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
San Antonio	44-21-1	22-8-1	22-13-0	31-16-1	13-5-0	6-3-1
Denver	37-26-3	21-10-0	16-16-3	28-16-1	9-10-2	4-6-0

HT/FT

• The Spurs have completed the HT/FT double in 53.0% of games this season, while the Nuggets have completed the HT/FT double in 40.9% of games.

To Go To Overtime

• The Spurs have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Nuggets have appeared in six.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 32 of San Antonio's 65 games this season. Meanwhile, 40 of Denver's 66 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

San Antonio recorded an upset 139-136 victory over Denver at Ball Arena when these teams last met on November 28. Despite being on the losing side, Jamal Murray erupted for 37 points on that day. The Spurs have now won three straight at Ball Arena against the Nuggets.