NBA Prop Bets: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat (March 29, 2026)

The Miami Heat (39-35) face the Indiana Pacers (16-58) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Sunday's matchup. The Heat are favored to win at -410, currently marked as 9.5-point favorites, while the Pacers are at +320. The total points line is set at 245.5, with OVER at -105 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 128-118 Miami.

• The Pacers (-115) have a 34-40-0 ATS record this season, while the Heat (-105) hold a record of 42-31-1.
• The Pacers have a 37-37-0 O/U record this season (meaning 37 games have gone over the total points line and 37 have gone under). The Heat have a 40-33-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Pacers are averaging 111.9 points per game this season (27th in the league). Comparatively, the Heat are averaging +8.4 more at 120.3 points (2nd).
• Defensively, the Pacers are giving up a whopping 120.6 points per game this season (26th in the league), while the Heat are giving up an average of 117.7 points (22nd).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Pacers currently rank 9th for pace this season, recording 100.8 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Heat sit 1st on that scale with 103.6 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 41.9% of the Pacers' field goal attempts come from three point range (16th in the league), leaving 58.1% from two. Meanwhile, the Heat's opponents are taking 42.2% of their attempts from three (27th) and 57.8% from two.
• Comparatively, Miami takes 40.4% of shots from three (15th), leaving 59.6% from two, while Indiana's opponents are attempting 37.2% from three (2nd) and 62.8% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Pacers are shooting 35.3% from deep in 2025/26 (20th in the NBA), compared to the Heat who are making 35.7% of their attempts (17th).
• On the opposite end, Indiana is holding opponents to 35.6% of their three-point attempts (13th), while Miami's opponents are hitting 35.2% of their shots (6th).

Ball Protection

• The Pacers are committing 14.5 turnovers per game this season, ranking 17th in the league, while the Heat are forcing 15.5 turnovers (10th).
• Flipping that script, Indiana is forcing 13.6 turnovers (22nd), while Miami is committing 13.8 (9th).

Crashing the Boards

• Indiana is pulling down 41.7 rebounds per game this season (26th in the league), including 9.9 offensive boards (25th). Conversely, Miami's opponents are averaging 46.7 rebounds (29th), 11.7 of which have come on the offensive end (21st).
• Meanwhile, the Heat are averaging an impressive 46.6 rebounds (3rd) and 11.9 offensive rebounds (9th), while the Pacers are allowing 46.7 and 11.2, ranking 28th and 13th.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Indiana	27-43-4	15-20-2	12-23-2	4-5-0	23-38-4	4-5-1
Miami	46-27-1	23-14-0	23-13-1	27-10-0	19-17-1	5-5-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Indiana	24-49-1	11-25-1	13-24-0	4-5-0	20-44-1	3-7-0
Miami	43-29-2	25-11-1	18-18-1	27-10-0	16-19-2	5-5-0

HT/FT

Indiana is +425 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Miami is -240.

• The Pacers have completed the HT/FT double in 13.5% of games this season, while the Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 44.6% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Sunday's matchup is +2000 to go to overtime.

• The Pacers have played in two games that went to overtime this season, while the Heat have appeared in one.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 40 of Indiana's 74 games this season. Meanwhile, 48 of Miami's 74 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Indiana recorded an upset 123-99 victory over Miami at Gainbridge Fieldhouse when these teams last met on January 10. Andrew Nembhard was prominent on that day, recording 29 points, six rebounds, nine assists and two steals.