NBA Prop Bets: Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors (March 29, 2026)

The Golden State Warriors (36-38) face the Denver Nuggets (47-28) at Ball Arena. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Sunday's matchup. The Nuggets are favored to win at -600, currently marked as 11.5-point favorites, while the Warriors are at +440. The total points line is set at 239.5, with OVER at -105 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 126-114 Denver.

• The Nuggets (-115) have a 40-35-0 ATS record this season, while the Warriors (-105) hold a record of 32-42-0.
• The Nuggets have a 46-28-1 O/U record this season (meaning 46 games have gone over the total points line, 28 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Warriors have a 44-29-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Nuggets are averaging 121.3 points per game this season (1st in the league). Comparatively, the Warriors are averaging only 115.2 (18th).
• Defensively, the Nuggets are giving up 116.9 points per game this season (21st in the league), while the Warriors are giving up an average of 114.9 points (T13th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Nuggets currently rank 22nd for pace this season, recording 98.4 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Warriors sit 17th on that scale with 99.4 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 40.7% of the Nuggets' field goal attempts come from three point range (21st in the league), leaving 59.3% from two. Meanwhile, the Warriors' opponents are taking 40.4% of their attempts from three (9th) and 59.6% from two.
• Comparatively, Golden State takes 50.2% of shots from three (1st), leaving 49.8% from two, while Denver's opponents are attempting a similarly high 42.4% from three (23rd) and 57.6% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Nuggets are shooting 39.4% from deep in 2025/26 (1st in the NBA), compared to the Warriors who are making 35.7% of their attempts (18th).
• On the opposite end, Denver is holding opponents to 34.8% of their three-point attempts (4th), while Golden State's opponents are hitting 35.5% of their shots (12th).

Ball Protection

• The Nuggets are committing 13.0 turnovers per game this season, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Warriors are forcing 16.1 turnovers (5th).
• Flipping that script, Denver is forcing 11.8 turnovers (30th), while Golden State is committing 15.8 (28th).

Crashing the Boards

• Denver is pulling down 43.5 rebounds per game this season (16th in the league), including 9.6 offensive boards (26th). Conversely, Golden State's opponents are averaging 44.4 rebounds (17th), 11.6 of which have come on the offensive end (19th).
• Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging 42.6 rebounds (22nd) and 11.5 offensive rebounds (13th), while the Nuggets are allowing 42.8 and 11.2, ranking 9th and 11th.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Denver	46-27-2	26-10-0	20-17-2	34-18-1	12-9-1	5-5-0
Golden State	33-37-4	16-18-2	17-19-2	22-21-4	11-16-0	7-3-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Denver	42-28-5	25-10-1	17-18-4	33-17-3	9-11-2	6-2-2
Golden State	39-35-0	20-16-0	19-19-0	28-19-0	11-16-0	3-7-0

HT/FT

Denver is -475 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Golden State is +650.

• The Nuggets have completed the HT/FT double in 42.7% of games this season, while the Warriors have completed the HT/FT double in 37.8% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Sunday's matchup is +2500 to go to overtime.

• The Nuggets have played in seven games that went to overtime this season, while the Warriors have appeared in five.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 48 of Denver's 75 games this season. Meanwhile, 39 of Golden State's 74 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Golden State recorded an upset 128-117 victory over Denver at Chase Center when these teams last met on February 22. Despite being on the losing side, Nikola Jokic had a triple-double for the ages on that day, finishing with 35 points, 20 rebounds and 12 assists. The Warriors have now won three straight at Chase Center against the Nuggets.