NBA Prop Bets: Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat (October 28, 2026)

The Miami Heat (0-4) face the Atlanta Hawks (2-2) at State Farm Arena. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday's matchup. The Hawks opened as 3.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 2.5, leaving the Hawks at -162 and Heat at +136. The total points line is set at 241.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 122-120 Atlanta.

• The Hawks (-115) have a 48-44-0 ATS record since the beginning of last season, while the Heat (-105) hold a record of 46-40-1 across the same span.
• The Hawks have a 47-45-0 O/U record since the beginning of last season (meaning 47 games have gone over the total points line and 45 have gone under). The Heat have a 48-37-2 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Hawks have scored 118.6 points per game since the beginning of last season (6th in the league). Comparatively, the Heat have averaged 120.3 over the same span (2nd).
• Defensively, the Hawks have allowed 115.8 points per game since the beginning of last season (18th in the league), while the Heat have given up an average of 118.7 points over that span (22nd).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams have played since the beginning of last season?

Pace

• The Hawks rank 5th for pace since the beginning of last season, recording 101.7 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Heat sit 1st on that scale with 103.4 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 43.0% of the Hawks' field goal attempts have come from three point range since the beginning of last season (8th in the league), leaving 57.0% from two. Meanwhile, the Heat's opponents are taking 42.2% of their attempts from three (26th) and 57.8% from two.
• Comparatively, Miami has taken 40.8% of shots from three (13th), leaving 59.2% from two, while Atlanta's opponents have attempted 40.7% from three (T12th) and 59.3% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Hawks have shot 36.9% from deep since the beginning of last season (7th in the NBA), compared to the Heat who are making 35.9% of their attempts (15th).
• On the opposite end, Atlanta has held opponents to 35.3% of their three-point attempts (T11th), while Miami's opponents have hit 36.0% of their shots (18th).

Ball Protection

• The Hawks are committing 14.2 turnovers per game since the beginning of last season, ranking 10th in the league, while the Heat have forced 15.1 turnovers (11th) across the same period.
• Flipping that script, Atlanta has forced 16.3 turnovers (4th), while Miami has committed 13.7 (6th).

Crashing the Boards

• Atlanta is pulling down 43.5 rebounds per game since the beginning of last season (18th in the league), including 11.1 offensive boards (19th). Conversely, Miami's opponents are averaging 46.6 rebounds (27th), 11.6 of which have come on the offensive end (20th).
• Meanwhile, the Heat have averaged 46.0 rebounds (5th) and 11.7 offensive rebounds (10th), while the Hawks are allowing 45.3 and 11.2, ranking 21st and 11th.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Atlanta	44-44-4	21-20-4	23-24-0	25-16-3	19-28-1
Miami	52-33-2	27-17-0	25-16-2	32-11-1	20-22-1

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Atlanta	50-39-3	24-19-2	26-20-1	31-12-1	19-27-2
Miami	47-38-2	27-16-1	20-22-1	30-14-0	17-24-2

HT/FT

• The Hawks have completed the HT/FT double in 42.4% of games since the beginning of last season, while the Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 41.4% of games.

To Go To Overtime

• The Hawks have played in two games that went to overtime since the beginning of last season, while the Heat have also appeared in two.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 46 of Atlanta's 92 games since the beginning of last season. Meanwhile, 57 of Miami's 87 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Miami recorded a 143-117 blowout victory against Atlanta at Kaseya Center when these teams last met on April 12, 2026. Bam Adebayo came up big on that day, scoring 25 points and adding 10 rebounds.