NBA Prop Bets: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors (October 28, 2026)

The Golden State Warriors (1-3) face the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1) at Target Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday's matchup. The Timberwolves are favored to win at -162, currently marked as 3.5-point favorites, while the Warriors are at +136. The total points line is set at 229.5, with OVER at -108 and UNDER at -112, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 116-113 Minnesota.

• The Timberwolves (-110) have a 47-51-0 ATS record since the beginning of last season, while the Warriors (-110) hold a record of 38-50-0 across the same span.
• The Timberwolves have a 45-53-0 O/U record since the beginning of last season (meaning 45 games have gone over the total points line and 53 have gone under). The Warriors have a 50-37-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Timberwolves have scored 118.2 points per game since the beginning of last season (7th in the league). Comparatively, the Warriors have averaged only 114.7 over the same span (21st).
• Defensively, the Timberwolves have allowed 114.2 points per game since the beginning of last season (11th in the league), while the Warriors have given up an average of 115.4 points over that span (14th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams have played since the beginning of last season?

Pace

• The Timberwolves rank 9th for pace since the beginning of last season, recording 100.5 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Warriors sit 19th on that scale with 99.0 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 42.0% of the Timberwolves' field goal attempts have come from three point range since the beginning of last season (17th in the league), leaving 58.0% from two. Meanwhile, the Warriors' opponents are taking 40.6% of their attempts from three (9th) and 59.4% from two.
• Comparatively, Golden State has taken 49.5% of shots from three (1st), leaving 50.5% from two, while Minnesota's opponents have attempted 38.1% from three (T2nd) and 61.9% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Timberwolves have shot 37.1% from deep since the beginning of last season (4th in the NBA), compared to the Warriors who are making 35.7% of their attempts (17th).
• On the opposite end, Minnesota has held opponents to 35.2% of their three-point attempts (8th), while Golden State's opponents have hit 36.1% of their shots (20th).

Ball Protection

• The Timberwolves are committing 14.9 turnovers per game since the beginning of last season, ranking 19th in the league, while the Warriors have forced 16.0 turnovers (6th) across the same period.
• Flipping that script, Minnesota has forced 15.1 turnovers (12th), while Golden State has committed 15.7 (28th).

Crashing the Boards

• Minnesota is pulling down 44.5 rebounds per game since the beginning of last season (11th in the league), including 11.3 offensive boards (17th). Conversely, Golden State's opponents are averaging 44.1 rebounds (17th), 11.5 of which have come on the offensive end (18th).
• Meanwhile, the Warriors have averaged 42.3 rebounds (22nd) and 11.6 offensive rebounds (13th), while the Timberwolves are allowing 43.6 and 11.7, ranking 14th and 21st.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Minnesota	50-46-2	22-25-1	28-21-1	34-24-2	16-22-0
Golden State	38-46-4	18-22-2	20-24-2	23-24-4	15-22-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Minnesota	50-40-8	26-20-2	24-20-6	32-25-3	18-15-5
Golden State	42-46-0	21-21-0	21-25-0	29-22-0	13-24-0

HT/FT

• The Timberwolves have completed the HT/FT double in 36.7% of games since the beginning of last season, while the Warriors have completed the HT/FT double in 34.1% of games.

To Go To Overtime

• The Timberwolves have played in five games that went to overtime since the beginning of last season, while the Warriors have also appeared in five.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 44 of Minnesota's 98 games since the beginning of last season. Meanwhile, 47 of Golden State's 88 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Minnesota recorded a 127-117 victory over Golden State at Chase Center when these teams last met on March 13, 2026. Anthony Edwards erupted for 42 points on that day. The Timberwolves have now won four straight at Chase Center against the Warriors.