NFL Prop Bets: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots - Week 4

The New England Patriots (1-2) face the Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Highmark Stadium for Week 4. Let's take a look at the NFL Prop Bets for Sunday's matchup.

The total points line is set at 48.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 28-21 Buffalo.

• The Patriots (-115) have a 1-1-1 ATS record this season, while the Bills (-105) hold a record of 3-0-0.
• The Patriots have a 0-3-0 O/U record this season (meaning zero games have gone over the total points line and three have gone under). The Bills have a 2-1-0 O/U record.

Points on the board

• The Patriots are averaging 12.0 points per game this season (T31st in the league). Comparatively, the Bills are performing better, averaging 33.7 (1st).
• Defensively, the Patriots are giving up only 17.0 points per game this season (6th in the league), while the Bills are giving up an average of 26.0 points (T21st).

Moving the chains

• With an average of just 307.0, the Patriots rank 21st in the league for total yards per game. Comparatively, the Bills rank 4th with 401.7 yards per game.
• In terms of yards allowed, the Patriots are giving up 278.3 per game this season (5th in the league), outperforming the Bills, who are giving up an average of 361.3 (25th).

Ascendency in the air

• The Patriots have recorded 197.7 passing yards per game this season (19th in the league). Comparatively, the Bills' defense has given up 254.3 passing yards per game (27th).
• Meanwhile, the Bills have recorded 246.7 passing yards per game this season (9th in the league), while the Patriots' defense has given up 170.0 passing yards per game (2nd).

Advantage on the ground

• Looking at the ground game, the Patriots have recorded 109.3 rushing yards per game this season (14th in the league). Conversely, the Bills are giving up 107.0 rushing yards per game (16th).
• On the other hand, the Bills have recorded an impressive 155.0 rushing yards per game this season (4th in the league) and this could be an area to concentrate on for the Patriots, who rank 17th for opponent rushing yards, conceding 108.3 per game.

Protecting the ball

• Looking at their ability to force turnovers, the Patriots have recorded 3 total takeaways this season (T15th in the league), while the Bills have recorded 3 (T15th).
• Looking at their ability to force turnovers, both teams have recorded 3 total takeaways this season (T15th in the league).
• On offense, the Patriots have recorded 8 total giveaways this season (T31st in the league), while the Bills have recorded 5 (T24th).

First to Score

The Patriots are +130 to score first, while the Bills are -166.

• The Patriots have scored first in two of their three games this season.
• The Bills have also scored first in two of their three games.

Which team will score the first touchdown?

The Patriots are +155 to record the first touchdown, while the Bills are -190.

• The Patriots have recorded the first touchdown in two of their three games this season.
• The Bills have recorded the first touchdown in one of their three games this season.

First Scoring Play

Play	Frequency	Odds
New England Touchdown	2 / 3	+314
New England Field Goal	0 / 3	+400
New England Safety	0 / 3	+5800
Buffalo Touchdown	1 / 3	+135
Buffalo Field Goal	1 / 3	+380
Buffalo Safety	0 / 3	+6800

Which team will get a quick start?

The Patriots are +165 to be the first team to reach 10 points, while the Bills are -208.

• The Patriots have been the first to score 10 points in two of their three games this season.
• The Bills have also been the first to score 10 points in two of their three games.

First Quarter Moneyline

The Bills are favored in the 1st Quarter Moneyline market, currently at -205, while the Patriots are +170.

• The Patriots have a 1-0-2 first quarter W/L/T record this season, while the Bills hold a record of 1-2-0.

Last Time They Met

The Bills recorded a 35-31 victory over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium when these teams last met in Week 15, 2025.