MLB Prop Bets: Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves (May 21, 2026)
The Atlanta Braves (34-16) face the Miami Marlins (22-28) at LoanDepot Park on Thursday at 6:40pm (ET). Let's take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Spencer Strider is the probable pitcher for the Braves, while Sandy Alcantara is the probable pitcher for the Marlins. The Braves are favored to win at -143, while the Marlins are at +119. The total runs line is set at 7.5, with OVER at -114 and UNDER at -105.
- The Braves (+123) have a 34-16 Run Line record this season, while the Marlins (-149) hold a record of 20-30.
- The Braves have a 22-23-5 O/U record this season (meaning 22 games have gone over the total runs line, 23 have gone under and five have resulted in a push). The Marlins have a 31-17-2 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Braves are averaging 5.3 runs per game this season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Marlins are averaging only 4.4 (16th).
- In the field, the Braves are allowing only 3.4 runs per game this season (2nd in the league), while the Marlins are allowing an average of 4.6 runs (T20th).
Let's take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.
Batting Insights:
Batting Average
- Looking at their batting averages this season, the Braves are at .264 (ranking 1st in the Major leagues), while the Marlins are batting .246 (10th).
Home Runs
- In terms of total home runs this season, the Braves are one of the best in the Major Leagues, hitting 69 to rank 2nd. Alternatively, the Marlins are at the opposite end of the home run standings, hitting just 39 (28th).
Runs Batted In
- Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Braves have recorded 261 RBIs to rank T1st in the MLB this season. Comparatively, the Marlins have recorded 207 RBIs to rank T17th.
Pitching Insights:
Earned Run Average
- The Marlins have an earned run average of 4.32 this season (23rd in the Majors), while The Braves have an ERA of 3.11 (1st).
Strikeouts
- Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Braves have recorded 438 this season, ranking 9th in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Marlins rank 15th for total strikeouts, recording 416.
Opponent Batting Average
- Opponents are batting an average of .228 against the Marlins this season (8th in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Braves' opponents are at .207 (1st).
First Innings Moneyline
- Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2026.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Neutral | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 14-13-23 | 8-3-13 | 6-10-10 | 11-13-15 | 3-0-8 | 0-0-0 | 3-2-5 |
| Marlins | 11-12-27 | 7-5-17 | 4-7-10 | 6-4-20 | 5-8-7 | 0-0-0 | 3-2-5 |
Lead After Three Innings
- Here are their records after the first three innings in 2026.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Neutral | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24-17-9 | 13-6-5 | 11-11-4 | 20-12-7 | 4-5-2 | 0-0-0 | 6-2-2 |
| Marlins | 21-20-9 | 13-10-6 | 8-10-3 | 14-9-7 | 7-11-2 | 0-0-0 | 5-4-1 |
NRFI/YRFI
The NRFI market is paying -125 and the YRFI is paying -105.
- The NRFI is 21-29 in Braves games this season. The Marlins have a 24-26 NRFI record.
Last Time They Met
The Braves recorded a lopsided 9-1 victory against the Marlins at LoanDepot Park yesterday. Dominic Smith was unstoppable in that matchup, hitting a home run, a triple and recording 3 RBIs.
