NBA Prop Bets: New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat (February 11, 2026)
The Miami Heat (28-27) face the New Orleans Pelicans (15-40) at Smoothie King Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday's matchup. The Pelicans are favored to win at -122, currently marked as 1.5-point favorites, while the Heat are at +102. The total points line is set at 232.5, with OVER at -112 and UNDER at -108, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 117-116 New Orleans.
- The Pelicans (-110) have a 28-25-2 ATS record this season, while the Heat (-110) hold a record of 30-24-1.
- The Pelicans have a 27-28-0 O/U record this season (meaning 27 games have gone over the total points line and 28 have gone under). The Heat have a 27-27-1 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Pelicans are averaging 114.7 points per game this season (21st in the league). Comparatively, the Heat are averaging +4.9 more at 119.5 points (4th).
- Defensively, the Pelicans are giving up a whopping 120.4 points per game this season (26th in the league), while the Heat are giving up an average of 117.3 points (21st).
Game Style
What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?
Pace
- The Pelicans currently rank 14th for pace this season, recording 99.9 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Heat sit 1st on that scale with 104.1 possessions per contest.
Field Goal Split
- Looking at field goal splits, 35.7% of the Pelicans' field goal attempts come from three point range (26th in the league), leaving 64.3% from two. Meanwhile, the Heat's opponents are taking 42.6% of their attempts from three (27th) and 57.4% from two.
- Comparatively, Miami takes 39.6% of shots from three (16th), leaving 60.4% from two, while New Orleans' opponents are attempting 45.0% from three (29th) and 55.0% from two.
Beyond the Arc
- In terms of made three-pointers, the Pelicans are shooting 34.5% from deep in 2025/26 (24th in the NBA), compared to the Heat who are making 36.2% of their attempts (13th).
- On the opposite end, New Orleans is holding opponents to 35.5% of their three-point attempts (11th), while Miami's opponents are hitting 34.7% of their shots (5th).
Ball Protection
- The Pelicans are committing 14.1 turnovers per game this season, ranking 9th in the league, while the Heat are forcing 15.8 turnovers (8th).
- Flipping that script, New Orleans is forcing 14.8 turnovers (14th), while Miami is committing 14.3 (11th).
Crashing the Boards
- New Orleans is pulling down 43.5 rebounds per game this season (16th in the league), including 12.3 offensive boards (8th). Conversely, Miami's opponents are averaging 47.4 rebounds (29th), 12.0 of which have come on the offensive end (23rd).
- Meanwhile, the Heat are averaging an impressive 46.7 rebounds (2nd) and 11.9 offensive rebounds (11th), while the Pelicans are allowing 45.9 and 12.5, ranking 25th and 29th.
First Quarter Winner
New Orleans is -115 to win the first quarter, while Miami is -105. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | 23-30-2 | 12-16-0 | 11-14-2 | 5-2-0 | 18-28-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Miami | 34-20-1 | 15-12-0 | 19-8-1 | 20-8-0 | 14-12-1 | 7-3-0 |
First Half Winner
New Orleans is -125 to win the first half and Miami is +105. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | 21-33-1 | 12-15-1 | 9-18-0 | 5-2-0 | 16-31-1 | 4-6-0 |
| Miami | 33-20-2 | 18-8-1 | 15-12-1 | 20-8-0 | 13-12-2 | 8-2-0 |
HT/FT
New Orleans is +120 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Miami is +145.
- The Pelicans have completed the HT/FT double in 16.4% of games this season, while the Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 43.6% of games.
To Go To Overtime
Wednesday's matchup is +1300 to go to overtime.
- The Pelicans have played in five games that went to overtime this season, while the Heat have appeared in one.
Both Teams 110+
- Both teams have scored 110+ points in 30 of New Orleans' 55 games this season. Meanwhile, 35 of Miami's 55 games have seen both squads reach that number.
Last Time They Met
Miami recorded a 125-106 victory over New Orleans at Kaseya Center when these teams last met on January 4. Despite being on the losing side, Trey Murphy III was lights out from deep on that day, finishing with 27 points and seven triples. The Heat have now won three straight against the Pelicans.
NBA Injury News – Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans (February 11, 2026)
The Heat reported on Monday (Feb. 9) that Herro remains without timetable for a return.
The Heat listed Powell as OUT for Wednesday's (Feb. 11) game against Pelicans.
The Heat listed Wiggins as Questionable for Wednesday's (Feb. 11) game against the Pelicans.
The Heat listed Larsson as OUT for Wednesday's (Feb. 11) game against the Pelicans.
The Pelicans said on Sunday (Feb. 8) that Murray has a chance to get back to the court at some point this season.
The Pelicans listed Peavy as OUT for (Feb. 11) game against Miami.
