NBA Prop Bets: Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors (February 25, 2026)

The Golden State Warriors (30-28) face the Memphis Grizzlies (21-35) at FedExForum. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday's matchup. The Warriors opened as 2.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 4.5, leaving the Warriors at -180 and Grizzlies at +150. The total points line is set at 224.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 114-110 Golden State.

• The Grizzlies (-115) have a 25-30-1 ATS record this season, while the Warriors (-105) hold a record of 26-32-0.
• The Grizzlies have a 27-28-1 O/U record this season (meaning 27 games have gone over the total points line, 28 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Warriors have a 33-24-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Grizzlies are averaging 115.5 points per game this season (17th in the league). Comparatively, the Warriors are averaging 115.5 (16th).
• Defensively, the Grizzlies are giving up 117.8 points per game this season (22nd in the league), while the Warriors are giving up an average of 113.9 points (11th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Grizzlies currently rank 6th for pace this season, recording 101.4 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Warriors sit 15th on that scale with 99.9 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 42.2% of the Grizzlies' field goal attempts come from three point range (11th in the league), leaving 57.8% from two. Meanwhile, the Warriors' opponents are taking 40.2% of their attempts from three (8th) and 59.8% from two.
• Comparatively, Golden State takes 50.9% of shots from three (1st), leaving 49.1% from two, while Memphis' opponents are attempting a similarly high 43.0% from three (27th) and 57.0% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Grizzlies are shooting 35.1% from deep in 2025/26 (19th in the NBA), compared to the Warriors who are making 36.1% of their attempts (12th).
• On the opposite end, Memphis is holding opponents to 36.1% of their three-point attempts (17th), while Golden State's opponents are hitting 35.0% of their shots (8th).

Ball Protection

• The Grizzlies are committing 15.2 turnovers per game this season, ranking 22nd in the league, while the Warriors are forcing 16.0 turnovers (T4th).
• Flipping that script, Memphis is forcing 15.1 turnovers (11th), while Golden State is committing 15.6 (27th).

Crashing the Boards

• Memphis is pulling down 44.7 rebounds per game this season (11th in the league), including 11.6 offensive boards (13th). Conversely, Golden State's opponents are averaging 45.0 rebounds (20th), 11.8 of which have come on the offensive end (21st).
• Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging 42.8 rebounds (24th) and 11.1 offensive rebounds (19th), while the Grizzlies are allowing 45.3 and 11.9, ranking 24th and 24th.

Back-to-backs

• Notably, the Grizzlies are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
• Memphis holds a 2-6 W-L record on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, as well as a 3-5-0 ATS record and 4-4-0 O/U record.
• Additionally, Golden State has a 5-5 W-L record, 5-5-0 ATS record and 5-5-0 O/U record against teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back this season.

First Quarter Winner

Memphis is +114 to win the first quarter, while Golden State is -135. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Memphis	24-30-2	12-15-1	12-15-1	10-8-1	14-22-1	2-7-1
Golden State	23-31-4	13-15-2	10-16-2	17-19-4	6-12-0	5-4-1

First Half Winner

Memphis is +124 to win the first half and Golden State is -148. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Memphis	24-30-2	14-13-1	10-17-1	11-8-0	13-22-2	3-6-1
Golden State	33-25-0	18-12-0	15-13-0	25-15-0	8-10-0	5-5-0

HT/FT

Memphis is +200 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Golden State is -110.

• The Grizzlies have completed the HT/FT double in 21.4% of games this season, while the Warriors have completed the HT/FT double in 41.4% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Wednesday's matchup is +1300 to go to overtime.

• The Grizzlies have played in two games that went to overtime this season, while the Warriors have also appeared in two.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 31 of Memphis' 56 games this season. Meanwhile, 30 of Golden State's 58 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Golden State recorded a 114-113 victory over Memphis at Chase Center when these teams last met on February 9. Despite being on the losing side, Taylor Hendricks was prominent on that day, recording 15 points, 10 rebounds and three steals. The Warriors have now won five straight against the Grizzlies.