NBA Prop Bets: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies (March 3, 2026)

The Memphis Grizzlies (23-36) face the Minnesota Timberwolves (38-23) at Target Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday's matchup. The Timberwolves are favored to win at -850, currently marked as 14.5-point favorites, while the Grizzlies are at +575. The total points line is set at 236.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 126-111 Minnesota.

• The Timberwolves (-115) have a 26-35-0 ATS record this season, while the Grizzlies (-105) hold a record of 27-31-1.
• The Timberwolves have a 30-31-0 O/U record this season (meaning 30 games have gone over the total points line and 31 have gone under). The Grizzlies have a 28-30-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Timberwolves are averaging 119.1 points per game this season (5th in the league). Comparatively, the Grizzlies are averaging only 115.7 (15th).
• Defensively, the Timberwolves are giving up 114.6 points per game this season (13th in the league), while the Grizzlies are giving up an average of 117.7 points (23rd).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Timberwolves currently rank 10th for pace this season, recording 100.7 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Grizzlies sit 6th on that scale with 101.3 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 42.5% of the Timberwolves' field goal attempts come from three point range (13th in the league), leaving 57.5% from two. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies' opponents are taking 43.1% of their attempts from three (26th) and 56.9% from two.
• Comparatively, Memphis takes 42.0% of shots from three (11th), leaving 58.0% from two, while Minnesota's opponents are attempting 38.6% from three (4th) and 61.4% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Timberwolves are shooting 37.5% from deep in 2025/26 (5th in the NBA), compared to the Grizzlies who are making 35.3% of their attempts (19th).
• On the opposite end, Minnesota is holding opponents to 36.0% of their three-point attempts (16th), while Memphis' opponents are hitting 36.2% of their shots (18th).

Ball Protection

• The Timberwolves are committing 14.6 turnovers per game this season, ranking 16th in the league, while the Grizzlies are forcing 15.2 turnovers (11th).
• Flipping that script, Minnesota is forcing 15.1 turnovers (12th), while Memphis is committing 15.1 (22nd).

Crashing the Boards

• Minnesota is pulling down 44.7 rebounds per game this season (10th in the league), including 11.3 offensive boards (17th). Conversely, Memphis' opponents are averaging 45.1 rebounds (23rd), 11.9 of which have come on the offensive end (23rd).
• Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are averaging 44.4 rebounds (13th) and 11.6 offensive rebounds (13th), while the Timberwolves are allowing 43.1 and 11.3, ranking 10th and 13th.

First Quarter Winner

Minnesota is -290 to win the first quarter, while Memphis is +235. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Minnesota	31-28-2	14-16-1	17-12-1	24-22-2	7-6-0	5-5-0
Memphis	25-31-3	12-16-1	13-15-2	10-8-2	15-23-1	2-6-2

First Half Winner

Minnesota is -455 to win the first half and Memphis is +350. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Minnesota	31-28-2	16-14-1	15-14-1	23-23-2	8-5-0	7-3-0
Memphis	26-31-2	14-14-1	12-17-1	12-8-0	14-23-2	3-6-1

HT/FT

Minnesota is -525 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Memphis is +900.

• The Timberwolves have completed the HT/FT double in 34.4% of games this season, while the Grizzlies have completed the HT/FT double in 23.7% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Tuesday's matchup is +3000 to go to overtime.

• The Timberwolves have played in three games that went to overtime this season, while the Grizzlies have appeared in two.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 34 of Minnesota's 61 games this season. Meanwhile, 32 of Memphis' 59 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Memphis recorded an upset 137-128 victory over Minnesota at FedExForum when these teams last met on February 2. Despite being on the losing side, Anthony Edwards erupted for 39 points on that day.