NBA Prop Bets: Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors (March 5, 2026)

The Golden State Warriors (31-30) face the Houston Rockets (38-22) at Toyota Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Thursday's matchup. The Rockets opened as 8.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 7.5, leaving the Rockets at -345 and Warriors at +275. The total points line is set at 212.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 110-102 Houston.

• The Rockets (-115) have a 27-33-0 ATS record this season, while the Warriors (-105) hold a record of 27-34-0.
• The Rockets have a 26-34-0 O/U record this season (meaning 26 games have gone over the total points line and 34 have gone under). The Warriors have a 35-25-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Rockets are averaging 114.7 points per game this season (20th in the league). Comparatively, the Warriors are averaging 115.3 (17th).
• Defensively, the Rockets are giving up only 109.4 points per game this season (3rd in the league), while the Warriors are giving up an average of 114.1 points (11th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Rockets currently rank 29th for pace this season, recording 95.8 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Warriors sit 15th on that scale with 99.6 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, just 34.4% of the Rockets' field goal attempts come from three point range (29th in the league), leaving 65.6% from two. Meanwhile, the Warriors' opponents are taking only 40.3% of their attempts from three (8th) and 59.7% from two.
• Comparatively, Golden State takes 50.9% of shots from three (1st), leaving 49.1% from two, while Houston's opponents are attempting 39.8% from three (5th) and 60.2% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Rockets are shooting 36.9% from deep in 2025/26 (6th in the NBA), compared to the Warriors who are making 36.0% of their attempts (14th).
• On the opposite end, Houston is holding opponents to 34.8% of their three-point attempts (5th), while Golden State's opponents are hitting 35.3% of their shots (11th).

Ball Protection

• The Rockets are committing 15.5 turnovers per game this season, ranking 26th in the league. The Warriors may be well placed to take advantage of those numbers given they're forcing 15.9 turnovers per contest (5th).
• Flipping that script, Houston is forcing 13.4 turnovers (24th), while Golden State is committing 15.5 (25th).

Crashing the Boards

• Houston is pulling down 48.4 rebounds per game this season (1st in the league), including 15.4 offensive boards (1st). Conversely, Golden State's opponents are averaging 45.0 rebounds (19th), 11.8 of which have come on the offensive end (21st).
• Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging 42.8 rebounds (23rd) and 11.1 offensive rebounds (19th), while the Rockets are allowing 39.6 and 11.5, ranking 2nd and 17th.

First Quarter Winner

Houston is -180 to win the first quarter, while Golden State is +150. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Houston	35-22-3	15-11-1	20-11-2	33-19-2	2-3-1	4-5-1
Golden State	25-32-4	14-16-2	11-16-2	18-19-4	7-13-0	5-4-1

First Half Winner

Houston is -245 to win the first half and Golden State is +200. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Houston	33-25-2	14-13-0	19-12-2	31-22-1	2-3-1	7-3-0
Golden State	35-26-0	19-13-0	16-13-0	26-15-0	9-11-0	6-4-0

HT/FT

Houston is -170 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Golden State is +320.

• The Rockets have completed the HT/FT double in 40.0% of games this season, while the Warriors have completed the HT/FT double in 41.0% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Thursday's matchup is +1900 to go to overtime.

• The Rockets have played in six games that went to overtime this season, while the Warriors have appeared in two.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 19 of Houston's 60 games this season. Meanwhile, 31 of Golden State's 61 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Houston recorded a 104-100 victory over Golden State at Chase Center when these teams last met on November 26. Reed Sheppard was prominent on that day, recording 31 points, nine rebounds, five assists and two blocks.