NBA Prop Bets: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Toronto Raptors (March 5, 2026)

The Toronto Raptors (35-26) face the Minnesota Timberwolves (39-23) at Target Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Thursday's matchup. The Timberwolves opened as 6.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 4.5, leaving the Timberwolves at -205 and Raptors at +170. The total points line is set at 224.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 114-110 Minnesota.

The Timberwolves (-112) have a 26-36-0 ATS record this season, while the Raptors (-108) hold a record of 31-30-0.
The Timberwolves have a 30-32-0 O/U record this season (meaning 30 games have gone over the total points line and 32 have gone under). The Raptors have a 24-37-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

The Timberwolves are averaging 119.1 points per game this season (4th in the league). Comparatively, the Raptors are averaging only 113.7 (22nd).
Defensively, the Timberwolves are giving up 114.5 points per game this season (13th in the league), while the Raptors are giving up an average of 112.0 points (8th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

The Timberwolves currently rank 10th for pace this season, recording 100.7 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Raptors sit 21st on that scale with 98.5 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

Looking at field goal splits, 42.5% of the Timberwolves' field goal attempts come from three point range (13th in the league), leaving 57.5% from two. Meanwhile, the Raptors' opponents are taking 42.7% of their attempts from three (16th) and 57.3% from two.
Comparatively, Toronto takes only 37.2% of shots from three (25th), leaving 62.8% from two, while Minnesota's opponents are attempting a similarly low 38.8% from three (4th) and 61.2% from two.

Beyond the Arc

In terms of made three-pointers, the Timberwolves are shooting 37.4% from deep in 2025/26 (5th in the NBA), compared to the Raptors who are making 34.6% of their attempts (22nd).
On the opposite end, Minnesota is holding opponents to 36.0% of their three-point attempts (17th), while Toronto's opponents are hitting 34.9% of their shots (6th).

Ball Protection

The Timberwolves are committing 14.6 turnovers per game this season, ranking 16th in the league, while the Raptors are forcing 16.0 turnovers (4th).
Flipping that script, Minnesota is forcing 15.1 turnovers (12th), while Toronto is committing 13.9 (T7th).

Crashing the Boards

Minnesota is pulling down 44.8 rebounds per game this season (9th in the league), including 11.3 offensive boards (15th). Conversely, Toronto's opponents are averaging 43.5 rebounds (12th), 11.1 of which have come on the offensive end (9th).
Meanwhile, the Raptors are averaging only 42.6 rebounds (24th) and 11.2 offensive rebounds (17th), while the Timberwolves are allowing an impressive 42.9 and 11.2, ranking 9th and 11th.

First Quarter Winner

Minnesota is -142 to win the first quarter, while Toronto is +120. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Minnesota	31-29-2	14-17-1	17-12-1	24-23-2	7-6-0	5-5-0
Toronto	32-27-2	17-15-0	15-12-2	21-14-1	11-13-1	5-5-0

First Half Winner

Minnesota is -175 to win the first half and Toronto is +145. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Minnesota	31-29-2	16-15-1	15-14-1	23-24-2	8-5-0	7-3-0
Toronto	35-26-0	19-13-0	16-13-0	23-13-0	12-13-0	5-5-0

HT/FT

Minnesota is -120 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Toronto is +220.

The Timberwolves have completed the HT/FT double in 33.9% of games this season, while the Raptors have completed the HT/FT double in 42.6% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Thursday's matchup is +1600 to go to overtime.

The Timberwolves have played in three games that went to overtime this season, while the Raptors have appeared in four.

Both Teams 110+

Both teams have scored 110+ points in 35 of Minnesota's 62 games this season. Meanwhile, 23 of Toronto's 61 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Minnesota recorded a 128-126 victory over Toronto at Scotiabank Arena when these teams last met on February 4. Anthony Edwards dominated both ends on that day, finishing with 30 points and three steals. That result snapped the Raptors' 20-game winning streak against the Timberwolves at Scotiabank Arena.