MLB Prop Bets: Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians (September 11, 2026)
The Cleveland Guardians (74-73) face the Minnesota Twins (69-77) at Target Field on Friday at 8:10pm (ET). Let's take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Parker Messick is the probable pitcher for the Guardians, while Taj Bradley is the probable pitcher for the Twins. The Guardians are favored to win at -122, while the Twins are at +101. The total runs line is set at 7.5, with OVER at -112 and UNDER at -108.
- The Guardians (+141) have a 65-82 Run Line record this season, while the Twins (-171) hold a record of 78-68.
- The Guardians have a 70-76-1 O/U record this season (meaning 70 games have gone over the total runs line, 76 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Twins have a 78-58-10 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Guardians are averaging 4.1 runs per game this season (27th in the league). Comparatively, the Twins are averaging +0.6 more at 4.6 runs (8th).
- In the field, the Guardians are allowing 4.2 runs per game this season (9th in the league), while the Twins are allowing an average of 5.0 runs (26th).
Let's take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.
Batting Insights:
Batting Average
- Looking at their batting averages this season, the Guardians are at .237 (ranking 24th in the Major leagues), while the Twins are batting .245 (15th).
Home Runs
- In terms of total home runs this season, the Twins have hit 172 (13th in the Major Leagues). Meanwhile, the Guardians have managed 138 (29th).
Runs Batted In
- Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Guardians have recorded 574 RBIs to rank 27th in the MLB this season. Comparatively, the Twins have recorded 645 RBIs to rank 9th.
Pitching Insights:
Earned Run Average
- The Twins have an earned run average of 4.67 this season (26th in the Majors), while The Guardians have an ERA of 3.80 (7th).
Strikeouts
- Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Guardians have recorded 1384 this season, ranking 3rd in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Twins rank 16th for total strikeouts, recording 1224.
Opponent Batting Average
- Opponents are batting an average of .251 against the Twins this season (23rd in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Guardians' opponents are at .237 (11th).
First Innings Moneyline
- Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2026.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Neutral | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 33-26-88 | 19-13-43 | 14-13-45 | 23-17-53 | 10-9-35 | 0-0-0 | 2-4-4 |
| Twins | 36-40-70 | 18-12-41 | 18-27-29 | 12-11-24 | 24-29-46 | 0-1-0 | 3-3-4 |
Lead After Three Innings
The Guardians are -135 to lead after three innings, while the Twins are +105.
- Here are their records after the first three innings in 2026.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Neutral | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 52-49-46 | 32-24-19 | 20-25-27 | 36-31-26 | 16-18-20 | 0-0-0 | 2-7-1 |
| Twins | 57-60-29 | 31-22-18 | 26-37-11 | 20-16-11 | 37-44-18 | 0-1-0 | 3-5-2 |
NRFI/YRFI
The NRFI market is paying -140 and the YRFI is paying +110.
- The NRFI is 82-65 in Guardians games this season. The Twins have a 58-88 NRFI record.
Last Time They Met
The Twins recorded a 3-1 extra innings victory over the Guardians at Progressive Field when these teams last met on July 23. Despite being on the wrong side of that result, Patrick Bailey did what he could, hitting a home run.
