NBA Prop Bets: Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards (March 10, 2026)

The Washington Wizards (16-47) face the Miami Heat (36-29) at Kaseya Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday's matchup. The Heat are favored to win at -950, currently marked as 15.5-point favorites, while the Wizards are at +625. The total points line is set at 242.5, with OVER at -105 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 129-114 Miami.

• The Heat (-105) have a 38-26-1 ATS record this season, while the Wizards (-115) hold a record of 26-37-0.
• The Heat have a 33-31-1 O/U record this season (meaning 33 games have gone over the total points line, 31 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Wizards have a 34-29-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Heat are averaging 120.1 points per game this season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Wizards are averaging only 112.3 (25th).
• Defensively, the Heat are giving up 116.5 points per game this season (19th in the league), while the Wizards are giving up an average of 123.3 points (29th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?

Pace

• The Heat currently rank 1st for pace this season, recording 103.6 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Wizards sit 9th on that scale with 100.9 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 39.5% of the Heat's field goal attempts come from three point range (18th in the league), leaving 60.5% from two. Meanwhile, the Wizards' opponents are taking 40.8% of their attempts from three (20th) and 59.2% from two.
• Comparatively, Washington takes 40.1% of shots from three (19th), leaving 59.9% from two, while Miami's opponents are attempting 42.5% from three (27th) and 57.5% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Heat are shooting 36.3% from deep in 2025/26 (10th in the NBA), compared to the Wizards who are making 35.5% of their attempts (19th).
• On the opposite end, Miami is holding opponents to 34.7% of their three-point attempts (4th), while Washington's opponents are doing things easier, hitting 36.7% of their shots (25th).

Ball Protection

• The Heat are committing 14.0 turnovers per game this season, ranking 9th in the league, while the Wizards are forcing 13.6 turnovers (22nd).
• Flipping that script, Miami is forcing 15.5 turnovers (10th), while Washington is committing a potentially problematic 15.5 per contest (25th).

Crashing the Boards

• Miami is pulling down 47.2 rebounds per game this season (2nd in the league), including 12.1 offensive boards (9th). Conversely, Washington's opponents are averaging a whopping 47.8 rebounds (30th), 13.3 of which have come on the offensive end (30th).
• Meanwhile, the Wizards are averaging 43.0 rebounds (23rd) and 11.5 offensive rebounds (13th), while the Heat are allowing 47.0 and 12.0, ranking 29th and 23rd.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog	Last 10
Miami	42-22-1	20-12-0	22-10-1	24-9-0	18-13-1	8-2-0
Washington	20-41-2	13-18-2	7-23-0	1-3-1	19-38-1	4-6-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2025/26.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Miami	39-24-2	22-9-1	17-15-1	24-9-0	15-15-2	6-4-0
Washington	19-44-0	12-21-0	7-23-0	2-3-0	17-41-0	2-8-0

HT/FT

Miami is -1000 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Washington is +1100.

• The Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 46.2% of games this season, while the Wizards have completed the HT/FT double in 20.6% of games.

To Go To Overtime

Tuesday's matchup is +3000 to go to overtime.

• The Heat have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Wizards have appeared in two.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 42 of Miami's 65 games this season. Meanwhile, 35 of Washington's 63 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Miami recorded a 132-101 blowout victory against Washington at Capital One Arena when these teams last met on February 8. Bam Adebayo was a menace on the defensive end on that day, finishing with five steals to go along with 22 points. The Heat have now won four straight at Capital One Arena against the Wizards.