NBA Prop Bets: Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks (October 26, 2026)
The Dallas Mavericks (1-2) face the Miami Heat (0-3) at Kaseya Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Monday's matchup. The Heat opened as 7.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 8.5, leaving the Heat at -340 and Mavericks at +270. The total points line is set at 236.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 122-114 Miami.
- The Heat (-105) have a 46-39-1 ATS record since the beginning of last season, while the Mavericks (-115) hold a record of 37-46-2 across the same span.
- The Heat have a 48-36-2 O/U record since the beginning of last season (meaning 48 games have gone over the total points line, 36 have gone under and two have resulted in a push). The Mavericks have a 38-47-0 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Heat have scored 120.4 points per game since the beginning of last season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Mavericks have averaged only 114.1 over the same span (23rd).
- Defensively, the Heat have allowed 118.8 points per game since the beginning of last season (22nd in the league), while the Mavericks have given up an average of 119.6 points over that span (23rd).
Game Style
What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams have played since the beginning of last season?
Pace
- The Heat rank 1st for pace since the beginning of last season, recording 103.4 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Mavericks sit 4th on that scale with 101.7 possessions per contest.
Field Goal Split
- Looking at field goal splits, 40.7% of the Heat's field goal attempts have come from three point range since the beginning of last season (13th in the league), leaving 59.3% from two. Meanwhile, the Mavericks' opponents are taking 39.0% of their attempts from three (14th) and 61.0% from two.
- Comparatively, Dallas has taken 35.6% of shots from three (27th), leaving 64.4% from two, while Miami's opponents have attempted 42.1% from three (25th) and 57.9% from two.
Beyond the Arc
- In terms of made three-pointers, the Heat have shot 35.9% from deep since the beginning of last season (14th in the NBA), compared to the Mavericks who are making 34.5% of their attempts (25th).
- On the opposite end, Miami has held opponents to 36.1% of their three-point attempts (18th), while Dallas' opponents have hit 35.0% of their shots (7th).
Ball Protection
- The Heat are committing just 13.7 turnovers per game since the beginning of last season, ranking 6th in the league. As such, the Mavericks aren't likely to pressurise their opponents in this area given they've forced only 13.5 turnovers per contest (24th) across the same period.
- Flipping that script, Miami has forced 15.1 turnovers (T11th), while Dallas has committed 14.7 (18th).
Crashing the Boards
- Miami is pulling down 46.1 rebounds per game since the beginning of last season (T5th in the league), including 11.8 offensive boards (10th). Conversely, Dallas' opponents are averaging a whopping 46.6 rebounds (T28th), 12.0 of which have come on the offensive end (26th).
- Meanwhile, the Mavericks have averaged an impressive 44.6 rebounds (10th) and 10.5 offensive rebounds (23rd), while the Heat are allowing 46.5 and 11.6, ranking 26th and 20th.
First Quarter Winner
Here are their first quarter records since the beginning of last season.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 51-33-2 | 26-17-0 | 25-16-2 | 31-11-1 | 20-22-1 |
| Dallas | 28-55-2 | 15-26-1 | 13-29-1 | 12-12-0 | 16-43-2 |
First Half Winner
Here are their first half records since the beginning of last season.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 47-37-2 | 27-15-1 | 20-22-1 | 30-13-0 | 17-24-2 | |
| Dallas | 29-55-1 | 15-26-1 | 14-29-0 | 12-12-0 | 17-43-1 |
HT/FT
- The Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 41.9% of games since the beginning of last season, while the Mavericks have completed the HT/FT double in 23.5% of games.
To Go To Overtime
- The Heat have played in two games that went to overtime since the beginning of last season, while the Mavericks have appeared in six.
Both Teams 110+
- Both teams have scored 110+ points in 57 of Miami's 86 games since the beginning of last season. Meanwhile, 47 of Dallas' 85 games have seen both squads reach that number.
Last Time They Met
Dallas recorded a 118-108 victory over Miami at American Airlines Center when these teams last met on December 3, 2025. Anthony Davis cleaned the glass on that day, finishing with 17 rebounds, as well as 17 points and three blocks. The Mavericks have now won four straight at American Airlines Center against the Heat.
NBA Injury News – Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat (October 26, 2026)
The Mavericks listed Flagg as Questionable for Monday's (Oct. 26) game against Miami.
The Mavericks listed Aldama as OUT for Monday's (Oct. 26) game against Miami.
The Mavericks listed Marshall as OUT for Monday's (Oct. 26) game against Miami.
The Mavericks listed Lively II as OUT for Monday's (Oct. 26) game against Miami.
The Mavericks listed Martin as Doubtful for Monday's (Oct. 26) game against Miami.
The Mavericks listed Biberovic as OUT for Monday's (Oct. 26) game against Miami.
The Heat listed Larsson as Probable for Saturday's (Oct. 24) game against Charlotte.
