NBA Prop Bets: Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors (October 26, 2026)

The Golden State Warriors (0-3) face the Denver Nuggets (1-1) at Ball Arena. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Monday's matchup. The Nuggets are favored to win at -305, currently marked as 7.5-point favorites, while the Warriors are at +245. The total points line is set at 234.5, with OVER at -105 and UNDER at -115, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 121-114 Denver.

• The Nuggets (-115) have a 46-44-0 ATS record since the beginning of last season, while the Warriors (-105) hold a record of 37-50-0 across the same span.
• The Nuggets have a 54-35-1 O/U record since the beginning of last season (meaning 54 games have gone over the total points line, 35 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Warriors have a 49-37-1 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

• The Nuggets have scored 121.8 points per game since the beginning of last season (1st in the league). Comparatively, the Warriors have averaged only 114.5 over the same span (22nd).
• Defensively, the Nuggets have allowed 116.9 points per game since the beginning of last season (20th in the league), while the Warriors have given up an average of 115.4 points over that span (15th).

Game Style

What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams have played since the beginning of last season?

Pace

• The Nuggets rank 22nd for pace since the beginning of last season, recording 98.3 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Warriors sit 19th on that scale with 99.0 possessions per contest.

Field Goal Split

• Looking at field goal splits, 40.8% of the Nuggets' field goal attempts have come from three point range since the beginning of last season (20th in the league), leaving 59.2% from two. Meanwhile, the Warriors' opponents are taking 40.7% of their attempts from three (9th) and 59.3% from two.
• Comparatively, Golden State has taken 49.5% of shots from three (1st), leaving 50.5% from two, while Denver's opponents have attempted a similarly high 42.9% from three (27th) and 57.1% from two.

Beyond the Arc

• In terms of made three-pointers, the Nuggets have shot 39.3% from deep since the beginning of last season (1st in the NBA), compared to the Warriors who are making 35.5% of their attempts (19th).
• On the opposite end, Denver has held opponents to 34.7% of their three-point attempts (2nd), while Golden State's opponents have hit 36.1% of their shots (19th).

Ball Protection

• The Nuggets are committing 13.0 turnovers per game since the beginning of last season, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Warriors have forced 16.1 turnovers (6th) across the same period.
• Flipping that script, Denver has forced 11.9 turnovers (30th), while Golden State has committed 15.7 (28th).

Crashing the Boards

• Denver is pulling down 44.2 rebounds per game since the beginning of last season (14th in the league), including 9.9 offensive boards (25th). Conversely, Golden State's opponents are averaging 44.2 rebounds (18th), 11.5 of which have come on the offensive end (19th).
• Meanwhile, the Warriors have averaged 42.3 rebounds (23rd) and 11.6 offensive rebounds (13th), while the Nuggets are allowing 43.0 and 11.3, ranking 10th and 17th.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Denver	55-33-2	30-15-0	25-18-2	41-22-1	14-11-1
Golden State	38-45-4	18-22-2	20-23-2	23-24-4	15-21-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records since the beginning of last season.

	Total	Home	Road	Favorite	Underdog
Denver	48-35-7	27-15-3	21-20-4	37-22-5	11-13-2
Golden State	41-46-0	21-21-0	20-25-0	29-22-0	12-24-0

HT/FT

• The Nuggets have completed the HT/FT double in 40.0% of games since the beginning of last season, while the Warriors have completed the HT/FT double in 33.3% of games.

To Go To Overtime

• The Nuggets have played in 10 games that went to overtime since the beginning of last season, while the Warriors have appeared in five.

Both Teams 110+

• Both teams have scored 110+ points in 56 of Denver's 90 games since the beginning of last season. Meanwhile, 46 of Golden State's 87 games have seen both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Denver recorded a 116-93 blowout victory against Golden State at Ball Arena when these teams last met on March 29, 2026. Nikola Jokic came up big on that day, scoring 25 points and adding 15 rebounds. The Nuggets have now won eight straight at Ball Arena against the Warriors.