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NFL Prop Bets: Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs - Week 3

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) face the Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Hard Rock Stadium for Week 3. Let's take a look at the NFL Prop Bets for Sunday's matchup. The Chiefs are favored to win at -850, currently marked as 11.5-point favorites, while the Dolphins are at +575.

The total points line is set at 45.5, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 28-17 Kansas City.

  • The Chiefs (-108) have a 7-12-0 ATS record since the beginning of last season, while the Dolphins (-112) hold a record of 8-11-0 across the same span.
  • The Chiefs have a 5-14-0 O/U record since the beginning of last season (meaning five games have gone over the total points line and 14 have gone under). The Dolphins have a 10-7-2 O/U record over the same span.

Points on the board

  • The Chiefs have scored 22.4 points per game since the beginning of last season (T17th in the league). Comparatively, the Dolphins have averaged 19.6 over the same span (26th).
  • Defensively, the Chiefs have conceded just 19.4 points per game since the beginning of last season (8th in the league), while the Dolphins have given up an average of 25.6 points over that span (T24th).

Moving the chains

  • With an average of 335.1, the Chiefs rank 12th in the league for total yards per game since the beginning of last season. Comparatively, the Dolphins rank 27th with just 297.6 yards per game over the same span.
  • In terms of yards allowed, the Chiefs have given up 296.4 per game since the beginning of last season (8th in the league), outperforming the Dolphins who have allowed an average of 347.4 (24th).

Ascendency in the air

  • The Chiefs have recorded 220.1 passing yards per game since the beginning of last season (16th in the league). Comparatively, the Dolphins' defense has given up 217.1 passing yards per game (18th) across the same period.
  • Meanwhile, the Dolphins have recorded an underwhelming 180.8 passing yards per game since the beginning of last season (27th in the league), while the Chiefs is conceding only 192.3 passing yards per game (12th) across the same period, something they'll likely look to make the most of.

Advantage on the ground

  • Looking at the ground game, the Chiefs have recorded 114.9 rushing yards per game since the beginning of last season (17th in the league). The Dolphins rank slightly worse when defending the run, sitting 24th while allowing 130.3 per game.
  • On the other hand, the Dolphins have recorded 116.8 rushing yards per game since the beginning of last season (15th in the league) and although not terrible, they may still have a hard time performing against a Chiefs defense which ranks 8th for opponent rushing yards across the same period, conceding 104.1 per game.

Protecting the ball

  • Looking at their ability to force turnovers, the Chiefs have recorded 17 total takeaways since the beginning of last season (26th in the league), failing to perform to the same level as the Dolphins, who have recorded 22 (T13th).
  • On offense, the Chiefs have recorded 16 total giveaways since the beginning of last season (T3rd in the league), bettering the Dolphins' number of 26 (T24th).

First to Score

The Chiefs are -195 to score first, while the Dolphins are +150.

  • The Chiefs have scored first in eight of their 19 games since the beginning of last season.
  • The Dolphins have scored first in 10 of their 19 games since the beginning of last season.

Which team will score the first touchdown?

The Chiefs are -265 to record the first touchdown, while the Dolphins are +210.

  • The Chiefs have recorded the first touchdown in eight of their 19 games since the beginning of last season.
  • The Dolphins have also recorded the first touchdown in eight of their 19 games.

First Scoring Play

    Play Frequency Odds
    Kansas City Touchdown6 / 19+111
    Kansas City Field Goal2 / 19+402
    Kansas City Safety0 / 19+7300
    Miami Touchdown5 / 19+376
    Miami Field Goal5 / 19+424
    Miami Safety0 / 19+6100

Which team will get a quick start?

The Chiefs are -323 to be the first team to reach 10 points, while the Dolphins are +255.

  • The Chiefs have been the first to score 10 points in 12 of their 19 games since the beginning of last season.
  • The Dolphins have been the first to score 10 points in eight of their 19 games since the beginning of last season.

First Quarter Moneyline

The Chiefs are favored in the 1st Quarter Moneyline market, currently at -265, while the Dolphins are +215.

  • The Chiefs have an 8-8-3 first quarter W/L/T record since the beginning of last season, while the Dolphins hold a record of 7-7-5 across the same span.

Last Time They Met

The Chiefs recorded a 26-7 victory over the Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium when these teams last met in the Wild Card Round of the 2023 season. The Chiefs have now won five straight against the Dolphins.