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MLB Prop Bets: Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds (May 16, 2026)

The Cincinnati Reds (24-21) face the Cleveland Guardians (24-22) at Progressive Field on Saturday at 6:10pm (ET). Let's take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Chris Paddack is the probable pitcher for the Reds, while Gavin Williams is the probable pitcher for the Guardians. The Guardians are favored to win at -181, while the Reds are at +149. The total runs line is set at 8.0, with OVER at -115 and UNDER at -105.

  • The Reds (-143) have a 27-18 Run Line record this season, while the Guardians (+119) hold a record of 23-23.
  • The Reds have a 28-17-0 O/U record this season (meaning 28 games have gone over the total runs line and 17 have gone under). The Guardians have a 23-23-0 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

  • The Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game this season (14th in the league). Comparatively, the Guardians are averaging 4.2 (19th).
  • In the field, the Reds are allowing a whopping 4.9 runs per game this season (26th in the league), while the Guardians are allowing an average of 4.1 runs (10th).

Let's take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.

Batting Insights:

Batting Average

  • Looking at their batting averages this season, the Reds are at .226 (ranking 28th in the Major leagues), while the Guardians are batting .229 (27th).

Home Runs

  • In terms of total home runs this season, the Guardians have hit 43 (T18th in the Major Leagues). Meanwhile, the Reds have managed 59 (3rd).

Runs Batted In

  • Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Reds have recorded 184 RBIs to rank T15th in the MLB this season. Comparatively, the Guardians have recorded 185 RBIs to rank 14th.

Pitching Insights:

Earned Run Average

  • The Guardians have an earned run average of 3.88 this season (12th in the Majors), while The Reds have an ERA of 4.64 (27th).

Strikeouts

  • Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Reds have recorded 348 this season, ranking 22nd in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Guardians rank 2nd for total strikeouts, recording 424.

Opponent Batting Average

  • Opponents are batting an average of .238 against the Guardians this season (11th in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Reds' opponents are at .250 (21st).

First Innings Moneyline

  • Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2026.
    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Reds 10-11-24 6-5-13 4-6-11 4-2-9 6-9-15 0-0-0 2-1-7
    Guardians 10-7-29 5-3-15 5-4-14 5-5-15 5-2-14 0-0-0 3-2-5

Lead After Three Innings

  • Here are their records after the first three innings in 2026.
    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Reds 14-19-12 8-10-6 6-9-6 6-5-4 8-14-8 0-0-0 4-4-2
    Guardians 18-15-13 10-6-7 8-9-6 10-6-9 8-9-4 0-0-0 5-4-1

NRFI/YRFI

  • The NRFI is 23-22 in Reds games this season. The Guardians have a 26-20 NRFI record.

Last Time They Met

The Reds recorded a 7-6 victory over the Guardians at Progressive Field yesterday. Matt Mclain was unstoppable in that matchup, hitting a home run, a single and recording 3 RBIs.