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MLB Prop Bets: Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox (May 16, 2026)

The Boston Red Sox (18-26) face the Atlanta Braves (31-14) at Truist Park on Saturday at 7:15pm (ET). Let's take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Payton Tolle is the probable pitcher for the Red Sox, while Bryce Elder is the probable pitcher for the Braves. The Braves are favored to win at -149, while the Red Sox are at +123. The total runs line is set at 8.0, with OVER at -108 and UNDER at -112.

  • The Red Sox (-172) have a 17-27 Run Line record this season, while the Braves (+142) hold a record of 31-14.
  • The Red Sox have a 19-24-1 O/U record this season (meaning 19 games have gone over the total runs line, 24 have gone under and one has resulted in a push). The Braves have an 18-22-5 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

  • The Red Sox are averaging 3.7 runs per game this season (T27th in the league). Comparatively, the Braves are averaging +1.6 more at 5.3 runs (1st).
  • In the field, the Red Sox are allowing 4.0 runs per game this season (8th in the league), while the Braves are allowing an average of 3.3 runs (1st).

Let's take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.

Batting Insights:

Batting Average

  • Looking at their batting averages this season, the Red Sox are at .235 (ranking 21st in the Major leagues), while the Braves are batting .268 (1st).

Home Runs

  • In terms of total home runs this season, the Braves are one of the best in the Major Leagues, hitting 63 to rank 2nd. Alternatively, the Red Sox are at the opposite end of the home run standings, hitting just 32 (28th).

Runs Batted In

  • Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Braves have been outstanding this season, recording 235 RBIs to rank 1st in the MLB. Comparatively, the Red Sox have performed poorly in this area, recording only 156 RBIs to rank 27th.

Pitching Insights:

Earned Run Average

  • The Braves have an earned run average of 2.99 this season (1st in the Majors), while The Red Sox have an ERA of 3.74 (8th).

Strikeouts

  • Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Red Sox have recorded 362 this season, ranking 20th in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Braves rank T5th for total strikeouts, recording 397.

Opponent Batting Average

  • Opponents are batting an average of .205 against the Braves this season (1st in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Red Sox's opponents are at .238 (12th).

First Innings Moneyline

  • Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2026.
    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Red Sox 4-14-26 1-5-16 3-9-10 1-8-20 3-6-6 0-0-0 1-3-6
    Braves 12-11-22 6-3-13 6-8-9 9-11-15 3-0-7 0-0-0 3-0-7

Lead After Three Innings

  • Here are their records after the first three innings in 2026.
    Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Red Sox 13-17-14 8-7-7 5-10-7 8-9-12 5-8-2 0-0-0 3-3-4
    Braves 21-15-9 11-6-5 10-9-4 17-11-7 4-4-2 0-0-0 5-2-3

NRFI/YRFI

  • The NRFI is 25-19 in Red Sox games this season. The Braves have a 20-25 NRFI record.

Last Time They Met

The Braves recorded a 3-2 extra innings victory over the Red Sox at Truist Park yesterday. Drake Baldwin was unstoppable in that matchup, hitting a home run, a single and recording an RBI.